I agree with what you have written, but you mentioned something which I felt may have alluded to my post, hence replying. I usually refrain from replying to individual posts, but sometimes do to clear (usually has been to downrampers, but this may be a first to one who has AGE closest to the heart).
I have lot of respect for you, so please don't take this as any criticism, more as a clarification.
Firstly about me.
I started in AGE in May last year, picked up lot of shares which I sold at its near high in high 4s when I realised there is going to be CR. My selling was not liked, but thankfully to lot of good posters over here, there was no big criticism. I made one bag there.
Then when the CR did happen, I picked up a lot of shares at 2.7c average heads and 1.6c average oppies. These are my core holdings, which I have often said I will hold through thick and thin, which I am still doing.
I have also said many times that I like to trade and do hold other U stocks. Its just the way I am. I won't be surprised if some people make more just by sitting on initial holding and not doing anything. But in life sometimes we want to do things which we like - though we may pay a small price sometimes. Trading can be more beneficial too if you are lucky. So for me, I like to trade. I like to be active and do buying and selling all the time. Its a passion for me, keeps me on my toes, and if I am lucky I make up some coins too. So as part of that I keep buying and selling.
Last 7 to 8 months I have been regularly writing on AGE. I feel more regularly than many here. I do a lot of research, reading, analysis, number crunching etc. And when I do that, I don't keep that to myself. I write it over here. Not only my analysis, but my thoughts as well. Why do I do that? Do be popular, get a number of likes etc - No. I do it because I believe in sharing. I feel what I write even helps one single person, the effort which I have put in has been worth it.
Other thing which I do which most people don't is to write about their trades. I do that on most of my trades. Whenever I buy or sell something, I post it with price. Again why do I do it? One thing is I like doing it and wish others were doing it too - it helps you in analysis. Secondly, I like to be honest. So I write it when I buy/sell, at that time. Not coming back later and saying I made this much. I like to be transparent.
Now, lets get to AGE.
Over the last 7-8 months, even when there were down days, I have not lost hope for AGE. I believe that AGE will do very well, if not the best across all ASX U stocks. If anyone trolls through my posts, even in the darkest hours I have kept faith for myself and also provided hope to others. Very recently, 2 times we reached around 5c. It was not a good moment, with so many pessimists arriving and putting more fear. I had faith and I had called out to those who cared to listen that we will making 40-50% - in the short term. Long run most stocks can make that, but I mentioned clearly short-term. Both the times I was proven right - may be I was lucky.
As I mentioned I do trade and take profits. Two times that we have a rise of 40-50%, I have bought heavily near the fives and sold on high 7s average. So I made around 50% both times. My current sell at 7.9 was for the second lot (I had sold some at 7.1 but bought back at 7.5). So I was lucky and made some coins, but I put myself on the line with my statements and predictions. I hope many others also did something and I am hoping there are very few if any (long termers) who are in red.
Why AGE when there are so many other stocks. I have often said that AGE has got an X Factor that can differentiate it from others. I felt that 7 months back, its nothing new. The way we have progressed, and we have to thank Greg for that as well, the initial feeling I had has turned into a firm conviction. AGE will do well for a number of reasons, many we have outlined in other posts so don't want to go with that again here. The Fund inclusions and our biggest trump card is our drilling. Samphire can truly become a monster, if things click on the way.
And we have to remember - the macro U sector has to do well - it has to, otherwise we will not get what we think. And how is the sector looking? It is at its strongest it has been for over 10 years. The macro is growing every day. And I can say literally every day. Every day there is growing list of analysts/investors who are speaking highly of U 2022. Every day we hear some country starting/planning building new reactors. So the political sentiment is growing very strongly and rapidly in favour of Nuclear energy. This is the first step. Next step is for us to see the sentiment and discussion moved to economic sector. Once political sentiment is firmed and economic sentiment starts gaining - we will see the biggest rise then. We are not there yet. The first part around political is firming up. Then there are other factors like Sprott, Investment Funds etc. They are there to help and build the second part - the economic. So lot of activity happening around there. Look at China, France, India, US etc - all in the initial steps of the second part around economic. But as I said, we are not there yet, in my opinion.
Finally to my short term trade.
I did move my trading AGE to another stock. I have made two 50% gains with my trading AGE stock. If you look at the figures I do, the differential between AGE and other stock I moved for trading is now over 40% just for this year (AGE gain and loss for other). It may so happen that this percentage keeps on widening further. I do a lot of number crunching and work on probability. For short term trades I rely on that. For long term, like my AGE core holding I don't use any such thing and rely on fundamentals. Since I saw that the differential is over 40%, I saw that as an opportunity to make a short term trade. Here I am relying on probability and law of averages, more than anything. This is just based on numbers and not any fundamentals. Hence I have taken that step. I will know in few days how is it looking. I follow each and and every trade of nearly most ASX U stocks. The moment I feel that it was not a good step for a short term trade, I will swap the funds as soon as possible. I have a buffer now and I can transition without losing any ground. This short term trade is no reflection of AGE and what it is going to give us. I knew many people may not like what I did, hence was hesitating to write, but my conscience around transparency won the day. Why did I think people may not like it? Human behaviour. There are 100s of stocks just on ASX. If you pick up around 90% of the stock and read through the posts, you will feel that holders of each of them think they are sitting on the best stock ever. Any anyone who speaks even a little bit that is not positive, may not be liked. Its like your kid, you love them the most and think they are the best. Only if you detach from everyone and look from an independent perspective, you can find difference. So as I said, its natural, I understand and have no issues with it.
Finally, my gut feel is we may finish the year close to a billion MC. That's 4 times current MC. Lot of ducks have to align but there is a good possibility. Zhc003 has mentioned around funds and how volume is important. In my daily posts I always mention volumes and there are so many days when we are in top 10 ASX shares traded - some days on the top too. This shows the level of interest in AGE. This volume and interest will continue to reflect in AGE SP.
So, that's my very, very big answer to your one liner - sorry about being verbose. Maybe I love to write. Hope it clears anything you were thinking otherwise. All the best.
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