AGE 3.85% 5.4¢ alligator energy limited

I suspect that the drop which came after Cameco's results and...

  1. 173 Posts.
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    I suspect that the drop which came after Cameco's results and guidance was a "buy the rumour, sell the news" moment. They indeed missed their 2023 production target and said they'll be buying spot as required (read: to support contracts being signed that will pay out big time over 10-15 years), which should have been good news, but looks like a few exited the trade quickly. All good.

    Between them and Kazatomprom, they have so much market power now that they will make sure that spot and term stay high enough for long enough that they can fill their contract book into the 2030s. AGE just has to do what it says it will do: progress Samphire to production, drill out the exploration target (75m pounds would be an absolute gamechanger - note that they were constrained from beefing up the numbers in the initial scoping study by the amount of indicated pounds they had - just increasing it by 20% to 1.2m lb p.a. had a big positive effect on the numbers), and if we snag something at Big Lake or ARUP, it's game on.

    That's the year - it's all been laid out by GH. Uranium price stays high (we don't need spot to go to $200, though it would be nice), we add >10m lb to the resource and the Field Recovery Trial goes well. Stock price won't go up in a straight line, but short of a serious market issue (which looks to be a real possibility this year, to be fair), we should be ending the year significantly higher than here.

    GLTAH. Keep on enjoying the ride!
 
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