A traumatic week for U stocks, with a big drop in spot price.
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I am sure many must be thinking - what's happening? And more importantly - what's going to happen?
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I have been writing on U stocks for over 3 years now. Most who read my posts, will know that I follow price action more than fundamentals. And it's with every play I do. Any sector. I have seen it's so difficult to quantify fundamentals into market caps and share price, that it's not worth doing it. Price action gives me more assurance. But that's just me. Other people would have different opinion, and to be frank, we don't know which one is best, so it's individual choice.
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One thing though which I have found with U stocks and sector in last 3 years is that it goes thru, like a cycle. Good gains, and then losing everything. Then coming back.
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I know there are big pundits like JH and JQ who are the mouthpiece of the sector, and many like to follow them blindly. I was also like that, in 2021 and a bit later, and then I realised it's no good following them blindly? I am not saying they are not good, there is a chance, long term someone may still do well. But I concentrate on short term, few months, etc, and I felt following them is not good. Why? Because I feel they are not ethical. Hence give a wrong signal, especially if things are not going to go well. If U stocks price rise, it's all about the sector. It's boom time etc. And when prices fall - general market is falling, we are in end of February which is always a bad time, one brokers was desperate to exit, spot price doesn't mean anything, etc. Honestly, not good.
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Look at my posts. In January mid I said I exited my U stocks. I feel we may have peaked for the phase. Not the first time my predictions have been better than the stalwarts, especially for those who want to do short term trades, month to 3 months. Many may have been upset by my statement, or wished I was wrong. Instead relying on someone saying that they are so happy to see others sell in the 7s, and they get a lot of pleasure of seeing that fools are selling in 7s. We sometimes don't realise who is a bigger fool. Only time tells that. Also when spot price increases - it's boom time, final realisation of where we are going, supply demand has finally spoken, etc. And when spot price falls - ah, that is not important, it's very sparsely traded, anyone can manipulate. But we forget it can be manipulated on way up as well, or we may be ignorant, or we have become like JH and JQ - there cannot be any negative comments about the sector, we give it a god status.
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Anyway, a long post, but except for weekly reports, haven't written much here. I am still positive about the sector. Just over a year ago, we were thinking if PDN, DYL will hold 50. Now we are thinking of 110 or 100. So we are much better. And I feel good times will come again, and we may not be far away. All the best.
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