now this is a good subject! good to see someone engage in a fact based discussion.
But - as to your numbers... utter nonsense
LH ran at c1 $US35.1/lb cost Sep qtr according to the quarterly.
Then in most recent preso they say they are hoping to reduce c1 cost by 6% over fy15. They dont make it clear whether thats against the $31 pre production slowdown number or the Sep $35 figure - so youd have to assume $35 - ie a reduction of $2.10/lb.
So c1 cost not likely to be less than $US32/lb in remainder fy 15. Agree costs may be lower in fy16 - but who cares as by then the refinance will have been done or not and the cost or benefit will be in the sp.
As mentioned, c3 costs - ie the non direct opex costs are approx $20/lb.
So NPAT breakeven at PDN corporate level - assuming no particular nuances of d&A, goodwill ect - would be $US52/lb.
there is no evidence in what ive read to substantiate any meaningful reduction in fy15 c3 all in sustaining costs. I guarantee - if a $30 p& i repayment was going to susbtantially reduce All in sustaining costs they would flag it in bold.
But even if i took your $30m early repayment proposition at face value - across 5.4m/lbs thats a maximum of $5.55/lb principal + interest so say $us6/lb 'saving' - so bank balance shrinks to $170m but breakeven would become $US46/lb.
I dont buy that number - but at least it makes for a good argument as to why PDN should be increasingly become a BUY.
But PDN would still be loss making December quarter.
But this is a good discussion - if you have math to differ from what I;ve outlined please lay it out for us
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- Uranium spot vs price of miners
-
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 25 more messages in this thread...
This thread is closed.
You may not reply to this discussion at this time.
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add PDN (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
|
|||||
Last
$8.33 |
Change
-0.430(4.91%) |
Mkt cap ! $2.490B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$8.61 | $8.68 | $8.28 | $23.77M | 2.809M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 9135 | $8.32 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$8.36 | 2699 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 120 | 8.310 |
1 | 600 | 8.250 |
3 | 2322 | 8.200 |
1 | 610 | 8.150 |
2 | 775 | 8.100 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
8.370 | 5000 | 1 |
8.380 | 287 | 1 |
8.400 | 4235 | 3 |
8.500 | 600 | 1 |
8.550 | 1765 | 2 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 06/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
PDN (ASX) Chart |