oracle - sure and ill be pleased if they hit or better nameplate again. but it makes zero sense to me to price that in as a certainty.
like i said - i do my investment math on what i think is probable - not on wishful thinking or mgt promises
runningman - current long term prices ive seen reported are still in the mid $US30s/lb.
they carry escalator clauses so you dont miss all the upside if spot price zooms up - but to me it seems obviously naive to bank on hitting $US58/lb long term contract in Dec quarter when the spot price is at $US42/lb.
thats 38% rise.
no offence taken really - you're entitled to make up whatever scenario you like
like i said numerous times - it could well be that we hit those kind of prices.in fact i hope we do.
i just said only a fool or a supreme optimist would bake it into valuations at this point.
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$6.30 |
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