Uranium prices have surged in recent months but Australian-listed producers appear to have been left behind.
Since the end of June, uranium futures have advanced 28 per cent, while over the same period the market's biggest uranium stock, Paladin, has gained just 18 per cent.
Fellow uranium players have also lagged. Extract Resources has only added 18 per cent, while Energy Resources Australia has fallen 12 per cent.
In 2007 uranium prices were trading at $US110 a pound on speculation there would be an increase in the development of new nuclear power stations. It never happened.
There are roughly 441 nuclear power plants across 30 countries in operation and another 60 being built in 16 countries.
China, the world's fastest growing energy consumer, has 12 nuclear power reactors in operation and 24 under construction, according to the World Nuclear Association.
ERA recently provided an updated presentation on its operations and projects. Following the presentation and reviewing the risks around reserves, Goldman Sachs downgraded its production forecast for ERA.
The broker now estimates production of 4165 tonnes in 2012, 2777 tonnes in 2013 and 3163 tonnes in 2014 before recovering in 2015.
"We continue to see risk to 2011 due to uncertainty around current reserve resources, and if production falls short, ERA may have to buy uranium in the market to meet its contracts," Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Goodwill said.
"We would expect any purchases in 2011 could be at a loss given the rising uranium price."
ERA produced 911 tonnes of uranium from its Ranger mine in the Northern Territory in the September quarter, down 35 per cent amid a 38 per cent fall in the grade. Goldman Sachs has a "sell" rating on ERA and a $11.97 12-month share price target. ERA is majority owned by Rio Tinto.
ERA rival Paladin Energy has had a solid run since the beginning of September, advancing 26 per cent.
Disappointing production figures from ERA could prompt Rio Tinto to think about increasing its stake in fellow uranium miner Extract Resources. The world's third-largest miner already has a 14 per cent stake in Extract Resources.
Shares in Paladin have been supported by ERA's production downgrades. At full capacity ERA can produce close to 10 percent of global uranium supply.
Paladin is hoping to double production over the next two years from its Langer Heinrich and Kayelekera projects in Namibia and Malawi. While Paladin shares are trading at a 12-month high, Goldman Sachs is reluctant to suggest investors pick them up as they see the recent share price move as "temporary".
Extract Resources owns the undeveloped Rossing South deposit, neighbouring Rio's Rossing mine in Namibia. The miner has a $2.1 billion market capitalisation.
African based miner Bannerman Resources has been steadily climbing since it hit a 20 month low of 20.8c in June, in late trade on Monday it was at 64c.
Stock in the explorer has been bolstered by a "significant" resource estimate at its Etango project. Contained metals at the project have been increased by 31 per cent and have the potential to extend the future mine's life.
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