Great post johnrisk! I like your strategy to identifying value ... I agree with your sentiment 100% and feel the sector is now ripe for some major M&A activity given debt issues and lack of funds available to the juniors.
Questions is what deals are possible and who are the hunters and the likely hunted? I've never been a big fan of Paladin due to its African focus. There have been some who did well in its early rise and obviously many who have been left holding the ugly baby. That pain you refer to which is such an essential indicator of where a sector is in the investment cycle. Coming from the farming sector our cycles are much tighter so boom and bust is not so much of a shock to the system. You would probably have some good fodder for your psych studies in looking at the way a farmer copes with multiple investment (boom to bust to boom to bust) cycles in a lifetime. Lessons are learned hard and quickly and many scalps are claimed along the way. But at the other end are some very business savvy operators who do well in almost any season or market. I digress ...
The most obvious play seems to be on Paladin though given its debt problems and its position as both a producer and holder of some exciting greenfields projects, particularly those in Queensland.
What of the predators? Well AREVA is the world's second largest U producer and it has struggled to increase pounds in the ground with a disasterous foray into a supposed 'world class' deposit in Africa that turned out to be a fizzer. It has largely no exposure in Australia since its Koongara deposit is located in a very environmentally sensitive parts of the NT. So you have the world's 2nd largest producer with virtually no exposure in the world's largest reserve holding country Australia, except for one little shareholding. A 10.46% blocking stake in Summit Resources which is 82% owned by Paladin. I think this provides a potential clue as to what may occur in the future. AREVA has a strong history working in Africa so would be quite attracted to PDN's exposure there and the Summit assets, now the ban has been removed, opens up possibilities on the world's 12th largest undeveloped uranium project, some 90 million pounds.
Its highly likely AREVA are sticking the sell bot boots into PDN atm with an eye to lobbing in a takeover offer very soon. All pure speculation but you have to try to join the dots to make the big bucks on a set play share buy. Any thoughts?
I notice AGS had a big day today as well. Perhaps that U fever is building as you predicted ... good luck all.
(20min delay)