URFPA: Now a speculative buy, page-2

Rekon you might be a "smidge" early.

consider:

1.2bn assets
bank debt
bonds

there "will be" (imho) some write-downs as previously mentioned.

so circa 400-430m in assets.

THE MANAGER HAS SOME RIGHTS TO CONVERT PREFFS to ordinary.

the comment in the last rpt "no decision has been made" TELLS YOU THAT IT IS BEING LOOKED AT ................(again imho).

max 205 as you point out!

it would need to be in the '30's to offer good value (imho), as the risks are
sloooow asset sales
continued leakage of cash (to advisors / manager)
chg in bank coveneats with falling asset values
the longer it drags on - the more value that will be lost ......

see PXUPA for last saga of this type of instrument. NBB - that the preff's don't have any wind-up rights .......(ie ability to force it to occur)
the market will price the preff as "convertible", so the ordinaries will cap the preff price (imho).....

anyhoo - its on my watch list - with my acquisition price as above.....

love the active discussion !!!

rgds
Value_Hunter