Well as I said, you have to be 'right' within about a 3 month...

Well as I said, you have to be 'right' within about a 3 month window to about 6 months window maximum. THEN also ACT on it.

I will be putting everything I can into trading come June2009 area! Turning to a BULL bias from there. For now it is all VERY short term only! Vulture tactics only!
But also more important than being a 'correct predictor' is the ability to SEE and ADJUST so you do the truly right thing when it is truly right to do that! So the actual prediction itself is not even that important, it really is just a prediction of when to really start looking at the curves with more scrutiny, and there is no reason not to (rightfully so) fine-tune your strategy to suit that combination of prediction and real world info. (aimed to be within that 3 month window of accuracy).

I did very well from 2003 to Jan2008... missed the huge loss cycle to now... returned to do quite well in just over one month, even in the continuing bear market (using only shares/Calls) and I am sure (predicting, lol) I will do very well from June2009 onwards too. (to 2012 or so approx?)

I think I had a big learning lesson in the 1998 / 1999 / 2000 down to 2002 area!! So that has held me in very good steed to understand all what has unfolded this year and still to come! It is part of what helped me stay away the whole 10 months!

And irrespective of good predictions and accuray, it can take just ONE bad choice to do serious damage anyway... which OZL remains a 50-50 outcome for now! Though I am expecting a gains outcome approaching 100% in them.
RIO remains high on my 'watch keenly and next to do' list for after OZL, if their timing matches ok.. but no rush there for now.