I know everyone is looking forward to the potential of what the ADO COVID tests will bring to the organization financially, which will help to normalize some activities again worldwide.
While I was not at all in favor with the discount on the current CR or the timing of the CR prior to the Battery announcement, overall ADO has made significant advances in the past 18 months that build the foundation to become a very strong Australian Biotech / Energy firm.
This is a post where I have split emotions of sadness and the feeling of having made the right decision.
As per the thread title, I would like to highlight the urgent and ongoing need for Sepsis testing.
I have previously mentioned it before and I still believe this could become a much more significant income stream than the current pandemic which is not being resolved through vaccines quickly.
I was really sad when I heard a 7 year old girl passed away in one of WA's leading hospitals due to Sepsis.
To me, it is a tragedy for an advanced country like Australia when a young children can pass away from Sepsis. In this case there were many contributing factors, however if there was a standard test when admitting patients to check for Sepsis, Aishwarya Aswath may still be alive. I also have a personal experience where my uncle passed away from Sepsis just over 5 years ago in Bavaria - Germany. Again, if they had a standard test for Hospital admission for patients who even remotely exhibit Sepsis symptoms, he might still be alive.
While the two examples stir my emotions, for anyone who has not had a personal experience with Sepsis, there are 30,000,000 cases of Sepsis diagnosed with 6,000,000 people dying from Sepsis every year.
Sepsis is the second largest cause of death in the world, eclipsing COVID 19 by more than 100% every year!
While I might be wrong, I would suspect the number of Sepsis cases and deaths are significantly greater in developing countries which may not be as likely to do testing if it becomes available.
What I found astounding when reading some of the ADO information was that 50% of all Sepsis cases are as a result from ICU cases who had surgery and 25% of all cases are due from hospital surgery. While neither my uncle, nor I suspect Aishwarya were infected in hospital, I would expect if a reliable test was available for Sepsis it may become a standard patient admission test if even slight symptoms are present given the significant reduction in survival chances for every hour that is lost in diagnosis.
Assuming that there are significantly more than 30,000,000 patients in advanced countries who may have symptoms that appear to be like Sepsis, it would be reasonable to assume that well priced tests would be performed on any patient that shows symptoms. Some US hospitals may even perform routine tests on post operative patients to rule out Sepsis for insurance purposes. This test could be a standard test in many hospitals around the world if priced attractively.
If this was the case we would be looking at significantly more than 30 Mil tests per annum and that would ignore stale inventory that needs to be replaced.
Given ADO is the only company with a quick test that can be performed on site, if we look at a "conservative" 30,000,000 tests per annum with a profit margin of $5 per test, that would provide $150Mil in profit.
With a PE of 30, that would be 4.5Bil with a share price of $2.34 which some might suggest is a wild dream.
Look at the minimum PE of Tesla, a company soon to face strong head winds from well established automotive manufacturers, a PE of 30 which is less than 10% of Tesla's minimum seems ultra conservative, especially given we have many other aspects that are likely to provide additional opportunities for ADO and us shareholders.
While I am grateful to own part of a company that has technology that will serve humanity to reduce the second largest cause of death through Sepsis, below are additional aspects that provide confirmation that I have made the right investment decision many years ago:
COVID Antigen tests
ADO's ART antigen test has CE approval to enter the EU market and the UK - This is also recognized in some Asian countries and ADO is looking to get TGA approval. In reality the quantity of tests required in Europe would make our local requirements seem rather modest.
ADO has been approached by >50 countries and many companies to assist in identifying COVID patients before they are symptomatic and at the height of being contagious by using one of the most sensitive antigen tests available. Think sporting events, airlines, European and Asian Countries.
ADO have production agreements with Operon in Spain that is able to produce 8 Mil complete tests and 20 Mil test strips. They are gearing up to expand production and we have the ability to seek production elsewhere if they can't produce enough.
ADO is rapidly moving ahead with saliva testing which is the holy grail in testing. This in it's own right puts it in a category that many other antigen testing firms would be envious of.
I would estimate the number of tests to be in the hundreds of millons over time. If we assume a conservative 50Mil at a profit of $2 and the same PE of 30, then this would add 3Bil = $1.7 to the existing share price. A higher number of tests is highly likely and the profit is likely to be higher too.
Battery Development
We have Collaborators who have gained 18% increase in battery capacity and also 16-18% in battery cycles. So a Tesla that runs for 500KM with the current battery would run for closer to 600KM. Also, rather than the batteries lasting 10 years they will last 11-12 years.
Silicone has close to 10 fold the capacity of the current Anode materials and ADO has the capability to use lower concentrations of Silicone as Anodes that are more reliable and provide more power this early in the evaluation stage.
Just think that in 3-5 years we might have the capability to improve batteries by 40% while keeping the same number of battery cycles.
It is impossible to quantify how the improvement to electric cars, mobile phones and other battery dependent technologies.
The question Will this add $1Bil, $2Bil, $5Bil, $10Bil or $20Bil to the Market Cap?
To some degree, the sky is the limit and the future is bright for ADO and fellow investors.
Along with some potential significant increase in share price, assuming the Sepsis test will be released in less than 12 months, we will reduce the number of deaths significantly which reduces the suffering of many relatives.
Good Luck to all holders, especially the ones who held ADO right through the last 28c ride.
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