My primary hypothesis is that RECENT MLX trading has been more a function of a) now deteriorating trade talks; and b) with prior trading a decline management wears. (Although there's a "Re-set" out there.) This is bad for commodities, except, maybe, Au, Ag.
If talks' resolve into a deal tomorrow, before the 25% tariffs, then, Rally On Everyone!. However, there could be a deal next week, next month, next decade... (I'm patient, but not that patient!)
MLX will go down with no trade talks resolution... or will it? All things being equal it should follow the market down. All things though are not equal. MLX for a variety of company-specific issues (management?) is down, ie. not primarily based on commodity price, sovereign risk, natural disasters, etc. Therefore the Sn, Cu, etc are all there at well defined grades and size, and permitted.
My secondary hypothesis is that MLX has positioned its sp for a predatory t/o. Therefore MLX will fall some -- recent below average volumes, from ~late March, suggest holders are holding. MLX will probably retest 21c, if not high teens. That, with or without a deal may trigger a t/o bid.
And that's my trading thesis for MLX: 1) Long dump; 2) flattening sp; 3) unconstructive trade chatter; 3) Sn's strategic in future tech value, and; 4) BOOM, t/o!
Trade accordingly.
OV
PS I believe volume will be the tell.
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