US consumer confidence

Originally posted by alonso: ↑

The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—dropped 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest level in 12 years and well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.

*17.1% of consumers expected business conditions to improve, down from 20.8% in February.27.3% expected business conditions to worsen, up from 25.5%.
*&16.7% of consumers expected more jobs to be available, down from 18.8% in February.28.5% anticipated fewer jobs, up from 26.6% in February
*&16.3% of consumers expected their incomes to increase, down from 18.8% in February.15.5% expected their income to decrease, up from 12.8%.

https://mishtalk.com/economics/consumer-confidence-drops-4th-month-expectations-at-12-year-low/

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VIX "
52.33
at close
‎+5.35 (‎+11.39%)
as of 08/04/2025, 04:00 pm EDT
"

The biggest tariff yet of 104% makes the chance that taxes the tariff raise will allow no income tax a crazy dream seem more likely than not.

The understatement of the day may be "Trump says tariffs announcement was 'somewhat explosive'"

Question for me today was "How many household consumer goods from China are in most American houses today?"
AI response
Chinese-made household consumer goods are prevalent in most American homes today, reflecting their significant role in the U.S. market. Here are key insights:
Clothing, Shoes, and Travel Goods:
Over 41% of clothes, 72% of shoes, and 84% of travel goods sold in the U.S. are made in China1.
Furniture and Home Goods:
As of 2022, 52.6% of couches, lamps, and other furniture imported into the U.S. were sourced from China, though this share has declined from a peak of 71.6% in 20105.
Electronics and Appliances:
A significant portion of electronics and household appliances are imported from China. For example, Chinese-made alternatives for items like phone chargers are widely available at lower prices compared to U.S.-made equivalents13.
Overall Impact on Household Spending:
Goods labeled "Made in China" accounted for approximately 2.7% of U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) as of 2010. This includes categories like furniture, clothing, shoes, and household equipment2.
Construction Materials:
Many materials used in home construction—such as steel, aluminum, and appliances—are sourced from China, further embedding Chinese goods into American households6.
In summary, Chinese-made goods dominate several key categories of household consumer products in the U.S., making them an integral part of daily life for most Americans.
Question 2 "What is the likely impact of a 104% price increase on these items"

A 104% price increase on Chinese-made goods due to tariffs is likely to have significant economic and consumer impacts in the U.S. Here's an analysis based on the information provided:
1. Immediate Price Increases
Household Goods and Clothing: Items like clothing, footwear, furniture, and electronics—categories where China is a dominant supplier—will see sharp price hikes. For instance, families may experience sticker shock when purchasing back-to-school items or home appliances, with costs potentially doubling1 2.
Food and Essentials: Tariff-related price increases on fresh produce, dairy products, and packaged goods will occur quickly due to their short shelf life. Families will feel the financial strain almost immediately in grocery shopping1 2.
2. Consumer Behavior Changes
Elastic vs. Inelastic Goods:
Elastic Goods: Discretionary items (e.g., electronics or luxury goods) will likely see reduced demand as consumers delay purchases or seek substitutes3 6.
Inelastic Goods: Necessities like food, baby products (e.g., car seats), and safety items will continue to be purchased but at a higher financial burden for families2 6.
Substitution Effects: Consumers may shift to alternatives from other countries or domestic products if they are available and competitively priced3 6.
3. Broader Economic Impact
Household Budgets: The increased costs could add thousands of dollars annually to household expenses. Estimates suggest tariffs could cost American families an additional $4,000–$8,000 per year depending on their consumption patterns2.
Retailers and Supply Chains: Retailers may delay orders or reduce inventory to manage costs, potentially leading to product shortages or slower availability of goods7.
Inflationary Pressure: A widespread price increase across consumer goods could contribute to inflation, reducing overall purchasing power.
4. Long-Term Considerations
Economic Ripple Effects: Higher prices on essentials like auto parts and construction materials could lead to increased costs for services (e.g., car repairs) and housing projects over time1 4.
Potential Retaliation: If China imposes retaliatory tariffs, global supply chains may face further disruption, exacerbating the economic impact4 7.
Conclusion
The 104% tariff is poised to significantly increase the cost of living for American households, particularly for families reliant on Chinese-made goods. While some consumers may adapt by seeking alternatives or cutting back on discretionary spending, the overall economic burden will be substantial, with ripple effects across industries and markets.
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"Which household and business items are most likely to see a significant price hike"
A 104% tariff on Chinese imports will likely trigger substantial price increases across these categories:
Household Items
1. Consumer Electronics
Smartphones, laptops, and tablets: China supplies 78% of U.S. smartphone imports and 79% of laptops/tablets. Analysts project price hikes of 37%–68% for these items if tariffs are fully passed to consumers3 46.
Video game consoles: 87% of U.S. imports come from China, with potential price increases up to 58%3.
2. Appliances
Major appliances like refrigerators, washing machines, and kitchen equipment face cost surges due to reliance on Chinese manufacturing. Tariffs could push prices up by 20%–40%35.
3. Furniture
Import-dependent items like couches, tables, and lamps are vulnerable. Previous tariffs reduced China’s furniture import share from 71.6% to 52.6%, but prices remain sensitive to new levies13.
4. Apparel and Textiles
Clothing, footwear, and home textiles (curtains, bedding) could rise by 18%–33% due to China’s dominance in these categories35.
5. Small Household Goods
Items like stationery (e.g., planners), toys, and kitchenware face cost pressures. Simplified, a stationery brand, expects $630,000 in added annual costs, forcing price hikes or operational cuts2.
Business Items
1. Office Equipment
Computers and peripherals: Imported Chinese components could raise prices for monitors, printers, and accessories35.
Office furniture: Companies like Branch are raising prices (e.g., ergonomic chairs from $329 to $359) to offset tariffs5.
2. Industrial Supplies
Auto parts: A $14.6 billion import category from China, critical for U.S. automakers. Tariffs could add $7,600 to new car prices34.
Construction materials: Steel, aluminum, and appliances used in building projects may see delayed price increases as tariffs ripple through supply chains15.
3. Specialty Equipment
Coffee makers (e.g., Moccamaster) and niche tech (e.g., Supernote digital notebooks) face margin pressures, with potential price adjustments5.
Key Dynamics
Small businesses: Less able to absorb costs, leading to layoffs, salary cuts, or reduced expansion plans25.
Tech sector: Apple, heavily reliant on Chinese manufacturing, may face margin declines unless exemptions are granted46.
Consumer adaptation: Shift to non-Chinese alternatives (e.g., Vietnam, Mexico) or domestic products where feasible36.
Prices will rise fastest for electronics, appliances, and apparel, while businesses face cascading costs in industrial and office sectors.

Last question which you can think about yourself is "What will be the consumer and business response"

Have a great day all.