Over the past three months, the silver market has experienced...

Over the past three months, the silver market has experienced notable fluctuations, influenced by various economic and geopolitical factors.Price Trends:November 2024: Silver prices began an upward trajectory, aligning with a broader rally in precious metals.December 2024: The upward momentum continued, with silver reaching approximately $30.76 per ounce, marking a 28.84% increase from the previous year. ycharts.comJanuary 2025: Prices experienced a slight decline, with silver trading at $30.50 per ounce in mid-December. reuters.comInfluencing Factors:Geopolitical Developments: In early February 2025, the U.S. imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, leading to increased market volatility. Analysts have mixed views on the impact of these tariffs on commodities like silver. reuters.comMonetary Policy: Anticipation of interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve has also played a role in silver's price movements. Lower interest rates tend to make non-yielding assets like silver more attractive to investors. reuters.comMarket Outlook:Looking ahead, the global silver market is projected to remain in a significant deficit in 2025, with demand expected to stay around 1.20 billion ounces. This stability is attributed to gains in industrial applications and retail investment, which are expected to offset weaker demand in jewelry and silverware sectors. silverinstitute.orgIn summary, the silver market has exhibited a "see-saw" pattern over the past three months, with prices influenced by geopolitical tensions, monetary policy expectations, and supply-demand dynamics.Yes, there are signs that someone is "shaking the tree" in the silver market—meaning deliberate volatility is being introduced to shake out weaker hands before a potential move higher. Several indicators point to this:1. Price Swings & Stop-HuntingThe see-saw effect in silver prices suggests a mix of sharp spikes followed by pullbacks, a common tactic in managed markets.Large sell-offs followed by quick recoveries often indicate forced liquidations or stop-hunting, where big players trigger retail traders' stop-loss orders before accumulating at lower prices.2. COMEX & Paper Silver ManipulationThe COMEX futures market has historically been a battleground where bullion banks short silver aggressively to suppress prices and maintain control.Over the past few months, open interest has fluctuated, suggesting large players are repositioning.December’s price run-up saw increased short positions from institutional traders, which could be part of a controlled shakeout.3. Rising Physical Demand vs. Paper Price MovesSilver premiums on physical bullion have been rising, while spot prices remain choppy.Major bullion dealers report supply constraints, which contradicts the artificial pricing seen in futures markets.The Silver Institute projects another market deficit in 2025, meaning supply is not meeting demand—yet prices are still volatile.4. Interest Rate & Inflation ManipulationThe Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates has been unclear, adding to precious metals market uncertainty.If rate cuts are imminent, silver should trend up—but market makers may be suppressing the price before an eventual breakout.Bottom Line: Tree Shaking Before a Move?The price action suggests large players may be offloading weak hands before allowing silver to run.Given the supply deficit, rising industrial demand, and monetary uncertainty, the long-term outlook remains bullish.If manipulation continues, we could see more downward pressure before a big breakout.Yes, the silver market has a long history of manipulation, primarily through the COMEX futures market and bullion bank activities. Several key indicators and past legal cases confirm this.1. COMEX Paper Silver vs. Physical MarketThe COMEX silver market trades mostly in paper contracts, meaning far more "paper silver" exists than actual physical metal.Ratio of paper to physical silver: It is estimated that for every 1 ounce of physical silver, there are over 100 ounces of paper silver contracts being traded.This allows large players to suppress prices artificially by flooding the market with contracts that don’t require physical delivery.2. JP Morgan & Other Banks Caught Manipulating SilverJP Morgan has been fined $920 million (2020) for manipulating the silver and gold markets via spoofing (placing fake orders to create false market signals).Other banks, including Deutsche Bank and HSBC, have also been implicated in similar schemes.3. CFTC Investigation & SuppressionThe CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) has conducted multiple investigations into silver manipulation.In 2008, CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton confirmed evidence of silver market manipulation but stated that political pressure prevented strong action.Despite ongoing evidence, regulators have been slow to act, suggesting systemic protection of certain market players.4. Central Banks & Price SuppressionSilver, like gold, competes with fiat currencies as a store of value.Governments and central banks have an incentive to keep silver prices low to avoid exposing currency devaluation.Some analysts believe that coordinated shorting by major banks is done to maintain low silver prices artificially.5. Whistleblowers & Leaked InformationFormer JP Morgan traders have testified that silver price suppression was a common practice.London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) insiders have hinted at ongoing market distortions.Is the Manipulation Failing?Physical silver shortages and high premiums suggest that real supply-demand fundamentals are being ignored in paper markets.Growing investor awareness and movements like #SilverSqueeze (2021) indicate increasing pressure on the manipulated system.If enough investors demand physical silver, it could eventually break the manipulation by exposing the true supply scarcity.Bottom LineThe silver market is manipulated—historical evidence, legal cases, and structural imbalances confirm it. However, physical demand is rising, and long-term suppression cannot last forever.