LYC 0.26% $7.77 lynas rare earths limited

US Contract with Arafura, page-6

  1. 19,587 Posts.
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    Nonsense, simply VC attempting to build a *** to IPO and rape the mkt, in imitation of Ross Bhappu, et al, who cashed $3Bn out of dear old Moly, leaving punters with a Hail Mary.

    Clearly the bright young things attempting to resurrect Mt Pass running the same gameplan, 2019 is the new 2009, odds on 2020 will replicate 2010, only difference at mkt is there will be one ROW proven & profitable distinct a decade of glossy PDF.

    Follow the money, US GAO rates DOD oxide purchases at 1% of US 9% of total RE mkt, if you want to be incredibly generous and call total mkt 170ktpa x 10% x 1% = 170tpa, big deal, like that's going to swing $1Bn CapEx for ARU, joke.

    Reality is USGS reported 9800t REO imports 2018, 1400t Ce compound and Chinese export data would suggest at least 6.6kt La into FCC, balance would be about enough to float a cnr milk bar.

    Do try and avoid the muppet hype, it won't last long because underlying prices will not repeat the 2011 hysteria, rather move into the economic range that gives UBS the confidence to project LYC 7.9 PE FY21E off $2.60 base.
 
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