that's really one area with Trump that doesn't scare me so much
not much does, to do with emissions really. As to emissions, what I see as a big risk is war, no matter who brings it or how it comes.
But, for climate - I really don't enter the emissions thinking room much at all - why?
Tipping points.
1. there is either a tipping point for global warming for a planetary response, or there is not
2. if there is a tipping point - we have either hit it and gone past - or we will, if the climate continues to warm
3. if it is indeed mm activity that has caused this increased temperature - then, it is NOT going to stop within enough time to avoid a tipping point ------ why do I say that?
because if I accepted the mm point - and I see the temperature rise as we have now and particularly the last few years ---------- and I see things like the targets we have set for 2050 and 2060 - IMO, there is zero way that we won't hit a tipping point if we haven't already hit it ------------- WHICH, I think is looking more and more like we probably have
Now, if we have or do hit a tipping point - and head into whatever it is that will hurtle us into planetary response - then, to me - the very least of our problems will be 'mitigating the worst effects of cc' ---------- on that one, I think we're just hoping in fantasy land.
Last year, 23 was a big year for a number of things - not just smashing records - it was the beginning of a time where we invented a new method of measurement for the environment - which we will use and get a lot better science.
But on top of that we now have the first model that has predicted a tipping point for the AMOC - and that's huge news - no models before had predicted that.
If that's backed up in further studies, and I've seen no evidence that it won't be - then, it's a stunner -------------- that there is a tipping point.
and when we hit it - well, I've spoken about that in the above.
I used to work in fire detection - and, part of that was using basic rate of rise detection stuff. And rate of rise is basic, simple, and very very good and very reliable at is telling you that you have a fire - you might have 'temperature' but, no fire, - but, if you have rapidly rising temperature - then, you've got a fire - it's not just a hot day.
Every indicator I've seen in the last couple of years reminds me of that kind of thing - I've firmed up in my thoughts on cc since all of this cluster of happenings AND the rate of rise - and it's everywhere - right from temperature of air, to ocean to sea level rise
and I go back to those simple little detectors - why? because they are built around a simple and sound philosophy --------- if one gets triggered - you've got a fire most likely, if a whole lot of them go into alert - you almost certainly have got a fire, if the system is working fine - I'd say 100% - you've got a fire, and probably a doozy.
And it looks more and more like the fire has hit self sustaining to me - uncontrolled, runaway
Trump or no trump, emissions or no emissions -------- if we've hit a tipping point -
it's over. All we can do is to plan and execute evacuation.
