us geological survey - senegal

It's early evening in Cyprus and I've been having a beer and trolling the net in an effort to find further support to get up at 3am, when the ASX opens,to buy more FAR.

But what I found was this and it is not exactly reassuring:

http://pubs.usgs.gov/bul/b2207-a/b2207-a.pdf

Its a US Geological Survey report from a study undertaken in 2003, and titled "Assessment of the Undiscovered Oil and Gas of the Senegal Province, Mauritania, Senegal, The Gambia, and Guinea-Bissau, Northwest Africa".

Some pretty heavy reading for non-geos so if anyone can translate to english it would be greatly appreciated. But the findings that stood out to me were:

"This study estimates that 10 percent (three fields) of the total number of fields (discovered and undiscovered) of at least the minimum size (of 1 MMBO) has been discovered. The estimated mean size and number of undiscovered oil fields are 12 MMBO and 13 fields.."

and

"The mean expected sizes of the largest anticipated undiscovered oil and gas fields are 66 MMBO and 208 BCFG, respectively."

and....

"Current hydrocarbon production is limited to gas and minor amounts of oil in several small fields east of Dakar. Production is from Upper Cretaceous sandstone reservoirs bounded by normal faults. The traps are a combination of structural closures and stratigraphic pinch-outs. No other commercial accumulations have been found to date."

Reading Tullow reports on their success in Senegal did not help:
"Mauritania and Senegal

At the beginning of 2008 gross production from the Chinguetti field in Mauritania was under 12,000 bopd. A programme of three well interventions and two new infill wells was successfully completed during the year to increase production rates and access undrained reserves. By year-end the field was producing at rates in excess of 17,000 bopd. During 2009 production performance will be carefully monitored and analysed to evaluate if there is potential for a further drilling campaign in 2010.

In February 2008, Tullow drilled the Khop-1 exploration well in Block 6 in Senegal. Only minor oil shows were encountered and the well was abandoned, however, the well did provide important stratigraphic data pertaining to the
prospective Cretaceous interval. "

ON THE OTHER HAND, the 3D seismic data already acquired was enough for Shell to commit to spending money on CSEM! I would assume that this report was also based on fairly old data and vastly inferior techniques and technology to what exists now.

I've jusy provided this so everyone can make up their own mind, forewarned is forearmed and all that. As for me, I'm going to turn off the laptop, get a beer, watch the sun go down over Larnaca bay, and set the alarm for 3am so I can put my order in. You only live once!