US needs to triple uranium supply to support 300 GW of nuclear capacity

Originally posted on www.theoregongroup.com

US nuclear capacity needs — and has the potential — to triple from 100 GW in 2024 to 300 GW by 2050, according to a new report by the US Department of Energy.

This would mean a significant increase in uranium supply:

• access to 55,000-75,000 MT per year of uranium (U3O8) mining/milling capacity; it currently has 2,000 MT of capacity and procured 22,000 MT
• access to 70,000-95,000 MT per year of UF6 conversion capacity; it currently has ~10,400 MT per year of UF6 conversion capacity
• access to ~45-55M SWU ( Separative work unit, used to quantify enrichment services) per year; existing US uranium enrichment capability is ~4.4M SWU, while current US demand is 15M SWU

The US is heading a five-nation group (Sapporo 5, including the US, UK, France, Japan, and Canada) that has committed to invest a combined US$4.2B in enrichment and conversion services.

And, for many Gen IV reactors to succeed, a domestic supply of HALEU fuel also needs to be developed. So, for example, the US Inflation Reduction Act in 2022 provided $700 million to the HALEU Availability Program, with an Availability and Consortium already set up.

The report also warns that other critical minerals are also needed to construct nuclear reactors, highlighting, “of particular concern”: Hafnium, Niobium, Yttrium, Chromium, and Nickel.

Our recent analysis on where new uranium supply will come from: