us payrolls better = qe taper sooner?

Yeah right!

Payrolls Increased but notice the jobless rate stayed the same at 7.6%?

This is because as the economy worsened the labor market participation rate fell because people gave up looking for jobs

This made the unemployment rate artifically lower than what it actually was as it only takes into account the unemployment rate of those ACTIVELY seeking work

As the economy improves we will see the Labor Market participation rate increase as people who gave up looking for work buoyed by the improving economy decide to give it another go

As this happens, even if more jobs are created as more people are looking for work the unemployment rate may not improve. In fact you can even see the perverse situation that even if more jobs are created the unemployment rate can increase if the addition if new jobs doesn't keep pace with the increase of the labor market participation rate

This is why I really doubt Bernake is going to taper anytime soon as his goal of a 6.5% unemployment rate will be hard to achieve and take much longer than another 6-12months when you factor in a more normalised and healthy labor market participation rate


As usual the market has priced an event in as an almost certainty which is QE Tapering in Sept and as usual the majority view will imo be proven incorrect for my above reasoning