US Quote, page-34

Doc, couple of observations.

Surprising this, but one source is telling me WPL don't even know who or what Magnolia is which doesn't suggest they'd be remotely interested in their smaller West Perth cousins barely 3kms from the terrace despite their Kitimat interests in W. Canada or Port Arthur MOU with Sempra in LA.

Perhaps the other LNG is a candidate ... Cheniere ... but I'm reminded that they booted out Charif who wanted to expand. And expand he does with his new vehicle which has just pre-filed with FERC. Good luck with that!

So how about Charif himself fronting himself? I've no doubt PE would back him and provide the $$$ to provatise LNG but not without a significant premium SSHs would demand. As to the supermajors, I just don't see their SHs paying a huge premium not in this (improving) climate at any rate.

But there's plenty of $$$ looking for a home. Check out no. 6 in the wannabe stakes (slides 19, Venture Global) who folks I know dismissed as investment bank wannabies. That may be, but VG recently raised $250m from investors (to fund FERC etc). Yes really. So the arbitrage opp as you've outlined is perfectly plausible but as Siv noted a serious premium would be demanded by our SSHs.

As to current price action, it's clear some of those US investors are onto the story following presos this week and updates prior to. The question is, does any of them intend building a substantial stake to disclose or purely a material but not disclosable investment.

Either way, the melt up continues and I can see $2 in very short order given aggressive and relentless buying of the past few days which reminds me so much of the HQC exit/ price action 2 years ago.

Except we are 2 years ahead.

Remember the last capital raising was $4.25bn and $2bn MC doesn't seem unreasonable given runway to NTP/FID/FC.

God help the shorts when the any of these are announced!

Go LNG!!!