US Share Offering, page-44

So this is where it becomes "interesting". PLL closed on US market at $24.29 (and has risen in after market to $24.70 at present).

Just a few days ago a large amount of stock was sold (oversubscribed) into the market and sold for $25. Back to the slides in the post above. While we (stock investors) are neither producers or consumers of the "goods & services" (i.e. stock certificate) at the individual level, at the "aggregate level" (last set of bullet points) we do "consume" (i.e. buy the goods) and barter ("sell the goods") ... only the company produces more of the goods (stock certificates).

What changed for PLL specifically in the last few days?
Supply changed ... added 2.3M ADS stock certificates
Demand changed ... oversubscribed placement
Balance sheet became stronger (by the cash received from stock sale)
(Arguably) the business plan has greater "certainty" (by which I mean less risk ... e.g. less "funding risk")

Price "Action" has also changed (and I'm out of my depth here). SFT says that "Price is Irrelevant" and is "a byproduct of non-rational impulses among investors to buy and sell". OK then, supporting that aspect we've seen when the price was high the volume was high and when the price was low the volume was low ... roughly speaking ... and that translates to "low demand". But that also contradicts what we seen happen as well ... new supply was put into the market to satisfy demand. The "price" problem (?) was because of short supply. This has corrected with stock price reducing (not company value reducing).

Now if exogenous conditions (i.e. external variables to the model) cause changes in "Price" (e.g. the election ... to use one of Prechter's examples) then IMO its up to me as an investor to figure out how the endogenous variables (those variables in the model that are used to determine value ... e.g. Price of LiOH) are affected and what that means for my investment.

I put a very simple buy in place at the time of ADS placement ... buy at $22.50 (so 10% below the Offering Price ... I suspect I'm not alone lurking there). I expect the underwriters to "defend" the placement ... e.g. cue research piece by say Evercore ... we'll see were "equilibrium price" will set itself.

If I took less than half the tongue-in-cheek valuation say using 15X EV/EBITDAX then PLL has EV ~$3.25B which is roughly 9X present SP. Cut that in half as well to $1.625M ... still close to 5X ... so how far along the path to development and how much of the risk has been removed? Are we 20% there now (fair value) or 30% (undervalued).

That falls to "objective value" for me as opposed to "subjective value". I may be completely wrong as maybe absolutely everything is subjectively valued when compared to other options by impulse alone. Also interesting is that TSLA and AAPL were "spared" the big drop today.

Good fortune out there.