You are looking at the fundamentals Berrybum, You are forgetting the human Herd factor. As a race we believe what we want to believe, its all about confidence and when people have that things turn even though fundamantally they shouldn't. I think sometimes we over think things and really try to find answers to give us definitive answer when there is none. When the answer to GFC maybe just in how the majority is feeling at any certain moment in time. Take the USA if house prices stabilize when Obama stops the forclosures with his plan. It brings back a level of confidence that was not there human feel safe the market goes up investors make money and spend and so on and we have the start of a recovery.
Thats why not many pick it as there is no formula and no answer to when its over as its like a tie and ebbs and flows on emotion, Christmas rally is a perfect example on the emotion and it reflects into the market. While Jan reflects an over indulgence and cut backs. So the more people who believe the more it turns in to a reality.
