" US stock prices are ignoring the economic meltdown, wait for it…", page-6

  1. 514 Posts.
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    Stocks are just as overvalued as they were three months ago. The only things that have changed are, the US unemployment rate is now ~14%, the interest rate is back down to ~0%, the FED has another 3 trillion in debt on their balance sheet, and the sidelined money moved in to mop up the 'bargains'.

    That would be great, if the only problem was the coronavirus. However, this crisis began last September, as evidenced by the dislocation in repo market. In other words, when the real financial crisis peaks (maybe in a year or two), the tanks will be empty and the only path left for asset prices will be down and very swiftly.

    Also, after the longest ever expansion on record, it seems unlikely that a three month blip, will see the foundation set for the next leg up. If it does, the relative prices of assets are going to end up being astronomical, with their eventual normalization to result in even greater pain and hardship for proceeding generations.

    Shiller / 10 Year P/E
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/2192/2192063-cf346780a811d9bbb6c245cab07a8117.jpg
    https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
 
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