Its been discussed recently that we will start to see expiring...

Its been discussed recently that we will start to see expiring US stockpiles of Tamiflu and therefore new orders of antivirals. Here is the proof.

http://www.fda.gov/Drugs/DrugSafety/PostmarketDrugSafetyInformationforPatientsandProviders/ucm216249.htm

Pasting the relevant tables is too difficult, so just scroll down and you will see the bunch of Tamiflu lots (and a few Relenza lots) expiring in October and November - these expiry dates are the extended expiry dates granted by the FDA, so that is it for these lots - they will no doubt be disposed of by the end of the year.

The above months are early/mid winter in the US. Therefore if the US need to replace the above lots (and they will be mandated to keep a minimum quantity of antivirals), I'd imagine stockpile orders are probably about to be placed.

It will be interesting to compare the proportions of US orders of Relenza versus Tamiflu over the next two quarters...

...Get ready for rebalancing!

As for Europe, will we see any orders in the next few quarters, or will GSK continue to find a way not to sell any Relenza there...