US to invade Iraq by Sept 11?, page-6

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    Hi Ajax,

    I doubt it. If anything, Homeland Security will be concerned about the reverse happening on S11 (ie: another terror attack on the States).

    Personally, I doubt that an S11 styled US domestic attack will occur. The "homeland" is now too well secured for any sort of "mass" attack (ie: one of premium public exposure).

    An isolated, or symbolic, attack may well occur (ie: targetting public monuments, etc), and the usual cranks will be out there in force.

    Since S11 '01, most of the threatened attacks (or incidents of appreciable risk, or alert) have centred on:
    1)
    public transport /concourses /interchanges (ie: airports, the Golden Gate Bridge, shipping channels, and the Brooklyn Bridge);
    2)
    public monuments (the Washington Memorial, etc); and
    3)
    power facilities (although arguably, these are now increasingly well guarded, and will go into "lockdown" well before S11 rolls around).

    So, what may occur?


    SCENARIO 1 - ATTACKING US FOREIGN INTERESTS:

    If anything, an S11 styled attack will more likely target US foreign interests (ie: another embassy attack, or a foreign base attack). It may also be that US corporations operating overseas will be targeted, with many (including in Australia) going into lockdown mode in the lead-up to S11.

    Why?

    Because any of these facilities will inevitably be less defended than the Homeland.


    SCENARIO 2 - ASSASSINATION:

    Alternatively, an S11 styled attack may divert its approach towards a personal target (ie: threat of assassination, etc).

    For this reason, I expect to see a conspicuously less visibile US Executive and Congressional leadership over the coming weeks.


    SCENARIO 2A - THE CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP:

    Congress /the Congressional leadership may well be at heightened risk of attack, but again, all relevant security and military precautions are likely to have been taken well in advance to minimise such an event horizon.


    SCENARIO 3 - A "LEFT FIELD" ATTACK:

    A "left field" attack could well occur, such as an attack against US interests in the Middle East (including against Israel, from within Saudi Arabia, or in Turkey).

    If any of these occur, however, the US response will be near immediate - culminating in an attack against Iraq.

    If the S11 threat is realised against Saudi Arabia, or Turkey, I expect the US response to be measured /targetted.

    If the attack is against Israel, the US response is likely to be more comprehensive, including from the need to keep Israel on the sidelines (ie: stopping Israeli retaliation in its own right).

    Assuming, however, S11 passes by without incident, an attack on Iraq will not be forthcoming unless, or until, there is a significant provocation from the Iraqi, or Al Qaeda side. A failure to carry out weapons' inspections will spark the political rhetoric, but not a US led attack.


    SCENARIO 3A - ALTERNATIVE "LEFT FIELD" VARIANT:

    Another likely candidate for possible attack is either US interests in, or domestic interests in, Japan.

    Why?

    Japan, for all of its economic might, is potentially seen as a vulnerable part of Asia - financially, politically, domestically.

    An attack aimed at Japanese interests, or US interests (most likely, military) in Japan could well create the type of ricochet effect that S11 threatened last year.

    .....

    No matter what occurs, the heightened sense of security awareness, military preparedness, and political rhetoric, will all be too visible over the next few weeks.
 
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