I think what happens to Oil/USD/Commodities in the near term...

I think what happens to Oil/USD/Commodities in the near term will be a big key as well.

If Oil starts eyeing the psychological $100 mark then other commodities can get hammered as well which inversely will be good for most equities especially financials as hedgie money flows out of commodities.

As oil drops, US consumer should grow in confidence to use those $600 checks to buy buy buy...

Of course, some say the big key is US housing, but if the US consumer spends and the USD heads north and US rates pause or look upwards again, then who cares about US housing as long as the sub-prime mess is mopped up by then.

Who knows, we might start talking CNP $2-$5 in several months :)