https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_sales/salesfig_usa_2018#nov
US car sales were down again in November -0.8% YOY This wascaused by Car sales being down by -14% while truck sales were up 6 %. I personally believe trucks use a little less REO than cars but it is hard to know because without a full membership I cannot find out which category Mid size and large SUVS are in and these use lots of REO. I suspect they are both in Trucks it is the only way numbers make sense to me but it is JMO. If this is correct then trucks probably use a little more REO in PMMs than cars.
On a positive note Small economy car sales are down allot. These use the least REO, smaller and fewer PMMs. Most dramatic example is Honda Civic down – 26% YOY in October. Model numbers are delayed, Only October available.
Good news is in the US X Mas spending is slightly ahead oflast year. Not sure if this will hold many stores started their seasonal sales in early November this year instead of late Nov, in US.
In what appears as a strange move AT FIRST, FED EX put in a spending freeze. Are they being preemptive toward a slow down?
https://www.bing.com/news/search?q=FedEx+Spending+Freeze&qpvt=fedex+spending+freeze&FORM=EWRE
Going back to positive the most excepted definition of astock correction is down 10 % from its one year high. By this definition most markets were in a correction. Several signaled a strong correction for last month. In the last week most have moved almost out of the correction phase.. DJIA -4 % ( a solid improvement for Value stocks), NASDAQ -10%, S&P 500 -10% , ASX 200 -10%. All the last 3 were a tiny bit more than -10% I rounded down to 10.
Flipping again, the bond market is signaling a recession and this is the strongest signal since 2007
“A lot of this is traders readingtea leaves. An inversion of the 2- and 10-year yields has been a reliablerecession indicator in the past. Not all inversions have led to a recession,but recessions have always been preceded by inversions, according to MichaelSchumacher, the director of rates at Wells Fargo.”
Like all economic news, all of this is a two edge sword. It is hard to know which way it is cutting till time passes.
To be certain about any of this I think we need to waittill the end of January. This is always a turbulent time of year for economic indicators. Maybe mid-February when most companies will have reported December earnings.
I still feel the best way to know what Lynas stock will doin the next year or two, is put 40% of your attention on Lynas and 60% on WW economic conditions. All aggressive growth stocks will be affected strongly by WW economy. AG will be effected far more than any other stock class, this has been true 100% of the time I have been investing which is a long time. JMO
PS Aggressive growth stocks are one of the first to respond after bad times are over and respond better than any other class of stock. That is why I believe this is a great sell then buy opportunity.
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