I am violently agreeing with you. I accept the basic concept that the human race has not been investing in oil projects lately and so oil prices will be elevated moving forward.
Except I would go further, I see cheap Russian oil declining in the short term, due to sanction. The idea that KSA is buying Russian oil to run it's domestic electricity system to free up home grown oil for export would seem to support the evidence that KSA cannot pump more. Otherwise why bother? Just pump more. Also by selling "Russian oil" this way just means more middle men. This will support the price as well.
The only way I can see this mess being sorted is for the US gov to directly buy futures in oil market with a duration of 20 years. Thereby guaranteeing a future "oil market" in 20 years. But it would have to be on a massive scale and the greens, god bless them, Would go berserk.
Prices are $100, more or less. What happens when they stop selling oil from the SPR and have to start buying again?
All disclaimers. Have a great weekend everyone.
I am violently agreeing with you. I accept the basic concept...
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