USA Market Size Analysis & How Much Growth To Expect, page-7

There's a line in that report:

"Consumption of sunscreen products in 2016 ranged from about 1,080 million ounces to 1,743 million ounces."

Densities may vary a bit but for this exercise lets say a fluid ounce is equal to an ounce, which is the case for pure water. There are 35,274 ounces in a metric tonne. This means that the FDA has estimated US 2016 consumption at between 30,600MT and 49,400MT. At 25% zinc oxide, that's a TAM of 7,650MT to 12,350MT.

The way I am reading the table of ingredients is that the consumption estimate is a sum of all products that include that ingredient. There is a note at the bottom of the table to that effect. Thus Avobenzone is estimated to be present in about 75% of the sunscreen products consumed while zinc oxide is present in about 13% of products consumed. As we have seen, zinc is used at varying and sometimes tiny levels of concentration, but ANO is making 25% concentrations that rub on clear possible. 13% of sunscreen products in 2016 was about 4000MT to 6400MT. At 20% concentration, thats 800MT to 1280MT of zinc oxide.

We know that the overall market is growing about 6% globally, and zinc oxide has been growing much faster. We also know that the global market is multiples of this. North America is 35% of the global market.

My best estimate based on the above is that the 2019 global zinc oxide market for sunscreen products could be about 5000MT. Even without the changes to the monograph, that market is likely growing 20%+ per year, so i think ANO is grabbing the lions share of market growth now that there are no production bottlenecks. A change to the monograph could more than double the size of the global market in one go.

If next year we do 1000MT, it seems reasonable to me that ANO can grow production at a triple-digit CAGR for at least the next four years (8,000 MT in year 4, still only about 15% of global sun care market in 2023) Earnings growth will track higher as margins expand. By that point the world should be ready for our batteries or perhaps Actonclyffe Tower.