USA Report, page-217

The Objective Forecast has the California crop for 2023 at 2.6b pounds, higher than the Subjective Forecast and on par with the Objective Forecast for 2022 which turned out to be an over-estimation.

Will this year's forecast be on the high side or the low side?

2023 CALIFORNIA ALMOND FORECAST UP 1 PERCENT
California's 2023 almond production is forecast at 2.60 billion meat
pounds, up 4% from May's subjective forecast and 1% higher than last
year's crop of 2.57 billion meat pounds. The forecast is based on 1.38
million bearing acres. Production for the Nonpareil variety is forecast at
1.10 billion meat pounds, 10% above last year’s deliveries of 1.00 billion
meat pounds. The Nonpareil variety represents 42% of California’s total
almond production.

The almond bloom began in the middle of February and peaked at the
end of the month. Record level rainfall and unprecedented stormy
conditions hindered bee pollination activity in orchards across the state.
Cooler than normal temperatures continued through early summer and
delayed the maturity of the crop. Growers have been irrigating, applying
pest treatments, and preparing for harvest, which is expected to begin
in the next month.

The average nut set per tree is 3,953, a decrease of 3% compared to
2022. The Nonpareil average nut set of 4,004 is 1% higher than last
year. The average kernel weight for all varieties sampled was 1.67
grams, up 14% from the 2022 average weight. The Nonpareil average
kernel weight was 1.69 grams, up 9% from the 2022 average weight. A
total of 98.4% of all nuts sized were sound.


The June position report point to a significantly higher carryout than had been expected just a couple of months ago when shipments were running high. Shipments, particularly exports, continue to be hit hard indicating that overseas buyers had over stocked and are currently winding down their positions. Carryin was over 800m pounds and carryout had been forecast at 600m pounds, current inventory and recent shipments suggests the California carryout will be close to the 800m pound level.

So unless buyers have wound their inventory levels down too low or demand picks up significantly then we may not see much strength in the almond price in the short term.