USA Report, page-238

The October position report shows crop receipts down significantly but a little stronger in October, this is to be expected given the late start to harvest and the local conditions during harvest.

Domestic shipments crop year to date is flat however exports are up 10.5%

Looking at expected crop receipts and shipments compared to actual figures leads me to believe that we could be looking at a carry out figure a fair bit below forecast.

Rejects, as anticipated, are running much higher than previous years, currently double! If this continues then that alone would further reduce expected inventory by about 50m pounds.

From an Australian perspective water costs have increased significantly following the confirmation of an El Niño event, although prices did subsequently drop back a little but still running at much higher rates than the previous 12 months or so.