I posted on this a while back...but its going to be a more prominent topic for BCE wannabees from now on (the media will play on it) - so I have started a new thread...ok its probably a largely benign topic for some ESI holders watching the sp daily - but believe me - Monash etc etc would be watching this subject extremely closely. __________________________________________________
"It passed with little comment, but gas prices will rise 50 per cent over the next few years as eastern states move towards export price levels after the completion of a string of gas projects in Queensland.
Along with prompting large energy users to reduce their gas usage or diversify energy sources, the price and volume surge will bring with it significant risk for gas suppliers if disruptions occur and they are unable to meet contractual commitments."
I'd say the idea of lignite driven syngas IGCC and lignite driven products BCE just got a significant boost.
"THE US shale gas boom has increased the threat to Australian coalmining by freeing up production and infrastructure in North America to be used for exports, one of the world's biggest producers has warned.
The chairman of Anglo American Australia, Graham Bradley, said the switch to gas-fired energy in the US had more than doubled the export capacity of that country, pushing prices down and raising a question over new coalmining developments in Australia.
"Suddenly they have come in and taken significant share and that will be at the expense of . . . if not current mines, it will be certainly at the expense of the next crop of new mines," Mr Bradley told The Weekend Australian....
"So America has suddenly become, thanks to shale gas, much more competitive in coal and will be a major competitor with Queensland and NSW coal."...
Still, the bureau expects US exports to decline this year because of infrastructure constraints and high freight costs.
Another factor that may hinder US coal exports is a rise in gas prices in the US to $US4 per million British thermal units, which is seen as the price that US power plants will start using coal again. _________________________________________________
For a start - WHERE is this USA thermal coal coming from?
Mostly from the Powder River Basin in Wyoming - ~1500km from the west coast launch pad to Asia. Actually - 40% of USA's coal comes from there. The rest is no threat either - its a min a 1000km away from the coast - most of it much much more. The Powder River Basin is the ONLY perceived "threat".
"The majority of Wyoming coal is sub-bituminous coal that burns at around 8400 and 8800 BTUs per pound. Wyoming coal is clean burning, meeting the EPA standard of 1.2 pounds of sulfur dioxide per million BTUs."
Say 8600 BTUs per pound which equals ~4800 kcal/kg...while Coldry is ~5900 kcal/kg.
So IS Wyoming coal a REAL threat to NEW Aust projects?
IMO yes and no. The recent QLD Galilee basin project with the Indians has been given the go ahead. $6B costs with 495km of rail. What a punt!...or is it. Indians do their homework - India is closer to Nth Aust and they obviously like the coal characteristics and the LT supply control.
Wyomings disadvantages are plenty. 1500km from the coast etc. What about the China "threat". China has in recent years stated it has billions of tonnes coming online. Most of it is in the far far west of China...~3000km from where it needs to be burnt on the east coast. Hence Chinas imports are projected to grow.
Galilee basin project disadvantages are plenty too - 495km of rail...
"if not current mines, it will be certainly at the expense of the next crop of new mines," Mr Bradley (chairman of Anglo American Australia) told The Weekend Australian...."
This guy knows his stuff - but remember he is only commenting on traditional mining. Coldry etc have the potential to turn this thermal coal industry on its head....let alone Matmor madness later.
I reckon the Vic DPI agree...and the Govts.
I've largely looked at the "threats" to LV BCE and done my revised dd. I see tooo many competitive advantages BCE V "the rest"...
LV advantages are obviously dependent on commercially PROVING at least one BCE drying tech.
So WHY would Nth Asians WANT to buy/invest in BCE from Vic...?
Why have the DPI bothered/RISKED to present a "Pilbara" ALDP...?...obviously the DPI have done better homework than I or you.
LV advantages/viability are obviously dependent on commercially PROVING at least one BCE drying tech.
* LV lignite is the best in every way (Fact) - sulphur/ash etc - the worlds p/stations would crave LV lignite/BCE if proven.
* 50km from coast
* Lowest Sov Risk - hence LT guaranteed supply
* Fed/State Govt backing
***and***
Imagine a coy that can utilize all of the above using largely FREE waste heat and the only by-product is clean water. (co-incidences aside the FOB link below is a good read).
In essence - IMO...Coldry is very well placed. RFP submission and proposed Board shuffle was significant imo.
(20min delay)