usd/cad, page-3

Gidday Thommo,
Appreciate your perspective but I am not seeing it your way .

"if the US dollar index is due to retrace from the trillions of money being printed in thin air - wouldn't that be one reason to look at this as a short trade?"
Yes-If and I have no bias there. Maybe for someone else to comment.

"a big retrace due to commence, and as the CAD is a commodity currency like the AUS, you'd see that as favorable to also be short this trade."
You may be right but Oil is close to $33 support and if it falls through then shoot. What evidence do you have of a big retrace?

I have read some research on the fundies and at home the Canadians are experiencing housing starts at 7 yr low, record job losses in Jan, and with the US a huge consumer of Canadian product, bad for US bad for Loonie. There is also an expectation of more interest rate cuts. I have a bullish bias for the pair.
Technically from Feb 11 the 1hr chart shows it is trading in a range between 1.2382 and 1.2540ish so any long trade off 1.2382 is specific to these numbers only and if it breaks support or resistance then reevaluate. Would be watching the resistance at 1.2540. The daily chart shows triple tops at 1.3000 so that will be a test of strength if it goes higher.
If you move your stops closer the money you would preserve your 1.27 short and may have taken profit closer the 1.2023 low of Jan 28 instead of seeing it now at 1.24. Though still 300 pips ahead it may erode further. Easy to say in retrospect I know. Just look at that part of your strategy.
I look to fundies for bias but keen to trade the trend via T/A. A fundy only bias would miss all corrections would it not? I am 4 months into T/A so learning and refining strategy as we go. You may be right so all with a grain of salt.
Good Luck
Rawk