One thing is clear. There is no rush to buy gold at present. And with our $A appreciating the returns on goldies are falling.
So no need to hurry to invest until things are clearer. Either a massive downtrend to a significantly lower level in POG or a clear uptrend in the AUD POG.
The only miners that might be worthwhile to invest at present are low cost producers that are expanding or ones with that potential. These are not that easy to find.
Basically my portfolio has gone backwards since early June (I am mostly in gold) and the only ones that has been positive for me are MCO, PRE (a minnow that is highly spec), MML (now out of it), HEG (just by luck held for 1 week), while my main goldies, SLR and NGF have fallen a lot and CRK, MDL and AAM have been disappointments. I suppose if my energy shares had not also fallen off I would be around the June level overall.
In short, it is correct to say we need a much higher AUD POG. Just have a look at what has happened to AXM, SBM and NGF over the last two months. Even most of the Australian goldies with overseas operations have done little pricewise, if anything, since then.
So overall holding gold shares is very risky. The payoff will come if the AUD POG rises for whatever reason (worldwide inflation or AUD depreciation, or higher world economic growth). There is no certainty of this happening soon.
The only matter that could change things in the short term is possibly higher purchases of gold by Indians as they get into their "wedding season".
So stick to your guns, I say.
I am hanging onto my goldies because some of these seem to have reasonable longer term growth stories. Also, I seem to be "attached" to the GOLDSTORY", in particular that all that money printing has to lead to some very bad economic consequences that are good for the POG. May be in the long run I will be proved right, but on the other hand I could also be dead before that happens.
