whats different this time around is China's now such a substantial part of demand but has been on a sharp slowing bias for 12 months - leading to a range of capital injection/softer policies there in past 3-6 months - those normally have a ~3-12 month lag but are getting less effective because of their non capitalist system and the long duration of their growth cycle (40+ years of rising gdp).
the net result though is you are looking at a robust next 2+ years trendwise in 'shortage' materials - metcoal, nickel, palladium, lng eg
much harder to divine net result for the oversupplied materials - oil, uranium, thermal coal
oil though likely to rise through pure math - last mainstream commodity domino to crash - first mainstream commodity to breakout - the math relationships make it technically bullish regardless of supply/demand
gold/silver - probably upward bias but less preferred to industrial materials in shortage whilst global GDP remains + 2% imo
with china printing inevitablyy going to have an impact and europe now showing some signs of growth (germany coming out of recession) the next 6-12 months could see real fireworks in tight commodities
AKM Price at posting:
2.7¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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