no, and I don't intend on convincing you. how many COT charts have you actually looked at? The USDindex is a perfect example. commercial might hedge the start of the trend if they are lucky, but then closes down. the larger trend is always carried by large specs and small specs.
granted commercials are not 100% consistent across the various commodities and currencies. but you only have to look back historically as far as 2000 at all the major pairs, copper, gold, SPX and many trends.
think about it, speculators cannot afford to be on the worng side of the trend for very long. not especially the small specs.
you might be caught thinking the commercials are actually making money from the futures contracts. it's a futures hedge. a hedge by it's very nature is not a primary investment it's a cover.
anyhow, I'm over trying to convince people what they can see for themselves with some simple investigation. good luck.
