My valuation of CFE/CLIO shares (after Mr Ding starts to pay, around 31/8/07) is:
US$192.5m Total cash to be received from Mr Ding
US$ 82.5m 30% share of Cape Lambert Project
US$ 63.1m Cash received on exercise of 238,568,835
options with an exercise price A$0.90 or
below
US$ XX m Value of other assets (e.g. Sacu
gold/copper, Int Goldfields Ltd)
US$(XX) m Tax payable on sale of 70% of Cape
Lambert Project to Mr Ding
---------
US$338.1m
---------
264,967,500 Currently issued shares (per company's
website)
238,568,835 Shares to be issued re options with an
exercise price A$0.90 or below
-----------
503,536,335 Diluted shares
-----------
US$0.67 = A$0.82 = £0.335 per share
Note that the above valuation assumes that any tax will be cancelled out by the value of other existing projects (e.g. Sacu gold/copper, Int Goldfields Ltd).
The above valuation could be increased significantly with:
1) good results from the drilling at the project (due
to increasing value of the 30% share),
2) increased resource statement,
3) increases in the price of iron ore, and
4) investment of the cash proceeds into other good
projects.
So, here's hoping for lots of positive share price action soon.
NO ADVICE INTENDED, PLEASE D.Y.O.R.
Prawn Pond
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