"Jim Riley, with Riley Trading in Brookston, IN, says the government numbers are inaccurate, ?I hate to say it but this report is a blatant lie.? Riley especially questions the 84 million harvested acre projection in the Thursday USDA report ... ?I think the market has lost confidence in the USDA? "
--------------------------------------------------------- Analysts Differ on Credibility of USDA Numbers 06/30/2011 by Gary Truitt
According to the USDA, U.S. farmers planted a lot more corn acres in 2011 than the trade expected. But analysts are divided on if the numbers are accurate and where corn prices will go. The 92.3 million acre planted corn figure was higher than the trade had dreamed, and, even higher than the planting intentions report this spring. Given the massive flooding and record rain fall in May and June, millions of acres are still under water. In Indiana and other parts of the Eastern Corn Belt, corn planting did not get completed until Mid-June. But USDA officials stand by their estimates.
Lance Honig, with the National Ag Statistics Service, said, ?A lot of people thought there would be less corn planted; but, what we found was that in states not impacted by the weather, farmers planted more corn.? Jim Bower, with Bower Trading in Lafayette, agrees and suggests that losses in the east were made up for by increased acreage in the west, ?I think it is possible that the western producer saw the problems in the east and decided to plant more corn to take advantage of higher market prices.?
But Jim Riley, with Riley Trading in Brookston, IN, says the government numbers are inaccurate, ?I hate to say it but this report is a blatant lie.? Riley especially questions the 84 million harvested acre projection in the Thursday USDA report. This number is higher than earlier USDA estimates, something he finds hard to believe in light of the late planting and poor planting conditions that have plagued much of the Corn Belt. Bower believes that production and acreage increases in Iowa and Nebraska will outweigh declines in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio.
Despite very difficult conditions in Indiana this year, the USDA still increased Hoosier planted corn numbers over last year?s ideal planting conditions. Indiana 2011 planted corn acreage was pegged at 12,270 million acres, up from 12,190 last year. For Iowa, the USDA upped its estimate of corn acres to 14.2 million, up from 13.4 million last year.
While corn went limit down in Thursday?s trade, Riley told HAT it will not go much lower, ?I think the market has lost confidence in the USDA and corn prices will hold in the $6 area." But University of Illinois Ag Economist Darrel Good sees a much lower price for corn, ?I think corn will move down toward the $4.50 level as we begin to rebuild stocks. I think that will begin to happen now.? American Farm Bureau Federation Crops Economist Todd Davis says a lot still can happen from now until harvest. Davis says the weather throughout the Corn Belt will have to cooperate in July and August for farmers to get strong yields - and those yields will be needed to re-build stocks and meet feed and fuel demand. He doesn?t think anyone was expecting more than 92-million corn acres this year, but he recognizes the market was signaling a need for more corn acres and farmers responded.
USDA acreage report was based on data collected during the first two weeks of June when a large percentage of acres remained to be planted in Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota. As a result, NASS has announced it will resurvey those four states in July for acres planted to corn, soybeans, durum and other spring wheat - releasing the updated estimates - if changes are needed, in the Crop Production report on Thursday, August 11.
