fools and horses/makybe diva

She'll win!

Hold your horses
Brendan Cormick
October 22, 2005

AT the end of a week when nigh on every superlative has been used to describe Makybe Diva and her preparation for today's Cox Plate, there is one untold tale that should give pause to every punter considering backing the country's favourite mare.

The story was lost in the euphoria that followed Makybe Diva's stunning gallop at Moonee Valley last Saturday morning, when the Cox Plate favourite gave her stablemate Pentacolo a six-length headstart and beat him home with a slick sprint.

As the racing media lavished her with praise and listened to trainer Lee Freedman and jockey Glen Boss extol the merits and benefits of the astonishing work, the mare was telling her own story - but it fell on deaf ears.

By the time Makybe Diva completed the 500m stroll from the end of her run back to the day stalls, she was still heaving and blowing hard, sweat marks glistening on her coat in the morning sun.

For a horse one week away from her main goal of the spring carnival, it marked a surprisingly lengthy recovery time. If Makybe Diva were rock hard, she should have been fully recovered by the time she got back to the stalls, with little more than a snort to show for her efforts.

Instead, her condition off the track suggested that Makybe Diva had fallen behind in her preparation.

It was one explanation for why Freedman brought her all the way to Moonee Valley - about a 90-minute drive - when he usually only works her on his home track at Rye or at the nearby Mornington racecourse.

Surely she didn't need to have a look around. She has raced at The Valley three times, each time going well without coming away with the winner's cheque.

Had she felt the hard ground at Flemington when she won the Turnbull Stakes on October 1, forcing Freedman to ease up on her work? Makybe Diva has already had one campaign hindered by hard tracks in Japan this year. Had it happened again?

Did Freedman think the road trip away in the horse float and the hard gallop on the racing surface would help to condition the mare?

More questions were raised when he served her up another strong piece of trackwork on Thursday.

One week from the Cox Plate, was this what you particularly wanted to see from the horse that has dominated betting for 10 weeks?

"She had a good hit-out last Saturday and I did a bit more with her on Thursday," Freedman said yesterday.

"She has done well at home, which isn't a bad thing when you're getting ready for big races because you're not constantly trying to hold her together.

"I am happy with the week. I'm happy with her condition. Touch wood, it has been a good week. I think we're going in with a great chance."

Early in the week, the feeling was that Makybe Diva would race into equine immortality, adding the Cox Plate to her two Melbourne Cups and the other trophies accumulated over 34 starts.

By yesterday, people were jumping out of trees to tell you why she was not a certainty and that she was under the odds.

Freedman's arch-rival in the training ranks, David Hayes, said if he was a bookmaker he would lay Makybe Diva.

"She should be the favourite but not be three or four points clear of the field," Hayes said.

Outspoken bookmaker Mark Read said the mare's quote of $2.50 was a point short of what would be acceptable to the professional punters.

"I've assessed her true odds to be $3.50," Read said. "Basically, she is a 40 per cent winning chance.

"It is a great race and has more depth and quality than any Cox Plate I've seen in the last 10 years. I wouldn't be surprised if nine of the runners weren't capable of finishing within a length of the winner. It will be a very competitive, high-class race and I find it very difficult to get Makybe Diva below $3.50.

"She is still my top pick but I can't see how there will be any more than a length between the first four horses."

When asked what the biggest threat to Makybe Diva was, Read didn't nominate a horse. Rather, he identified her jockey Glen Boss, who returns today from suspension, as the danger.

"Everyone in racing has their ups and downs and currently Boss is going through a trough," Read declared.

"He finds trouble in a race. In fact, trouble is following him around at present.

"He wasn't riding with much luck in Sydney (over the carnival) and got mixed up on a number of horses that failed to get clear running.

"Down here, through frustration, he got a suspension. And even when he won the Caulfield Guineas, trouble followed him everywhere he went in that race, too.

"He is a great jockey when in top form but his timing is out. He's riding like he is a bit rusty. I think he is a risk because this mare, to win this race, needs to be ridden absolutely perfectly.

"She is better at 2400m than 2000m and she is better on flat tracks rather than Moonee Valley (with an uphill run from the turn). To win, it requires Boss to be at his absolute best to get her in the right position. Right now, trouble is following the guy."

A myriad of factors complicates the hunt for the winner of the Cox Plate if it is not Makybe Diva, the obvious tip.

Can the three-year-olds - Caulfield Guineas winner God's Own and Spring Champion Stakes winner Hotel Grand - emulate past Cox Plate winners from their age group such as Octagonal and last year's winner Savabeel?

Will Super Kid or Greys Inn become the first non-Australian- or New Zealand-trained horse to win the weight-for-age championship of Australasia?

Is Xcellent, yet to blemish his New Zealand record, up to breaking his maiden status on this side of the Tasman? After all, he failed in the AJC Derby on a wet track.

What effect will the rain have on the track and the runners?

The track had edged into the slow range last night after 10mm was recorded in a mid-afternoon downpour. Read said the rain made the race more even because not only do some horses not handle soft ground but it will further complicate the race as far as luck in running goes.

The forecast is for showers and thunderstorms today, prompting trainer Mike Moroney to speculate on a decision having to be made by Xcellent's owners on a start. Failure to race in the Cox Plate will force the horse to miss the Melbourne Cup.

Hong Kong representative Super Kid has been fobbed off by many that don't know the horse as capable of running a strong 2000metres.

He has had trouble with back problems during his career.

In Hong Kong, they race clockwise but in Melbourne it is the other way around and this may help put less pressure on his back.

John Moore, the highly respected trainer and son of champion Australian jockey George Moore, was given the horse to prepare for the Cox Plate.

Being out of the busy Hong Kong hive in more sedate surrounds, initially at Sandown and then Caulfield, has agreed with Super Kid.

He has finished second in two Group I lead-up races with huge weights, wide barriers and little by way of luck, but is now primed for the event he has been set for.

Super Kid has drawn very well in barrier five and should be able to race midfield without expending energy and track into the fight from the 600m.

He impressed in his final workout on the course proper at Moonee Valley on Wednesday and is ready to roll the Diva.