Also assume we have an extra say 50mill shares on issue by time of production (capex purposes, even tho they can easily borrow and not dilute capital)
So: 70USD*1.13(currency) = 80 AUD revenue / tonne
80 AUD revenue - 45 AUD costs = 35 AUD/tonne
35 AUD * 5mill tonnes = 175mill
175mill * 0.7 (tax) = 122 mill net profit
122 million net profit / 135mill shares (ive added an extra 50 mill shares)
= 90cents per share!!!!
thats using a long term avg price of 70USD
If we use 100USD:
113 AUD revenue per tonne
113 - 45 AUD costs = 68AUD profit / tonne
68 * 5mill tonnes = 340 mill revenue
340 * 0.7 = 238mill
238mill/135mill = $1.76 per share EPS!
evenif we DOUBLE the share capital to 170mill shares
238mill net profit / 170mill = $1.40 per share EPS
If you give a PE of 10, you get $11.40!
ive DOUBLED the share capital!
Even if we go back to using the long term price of 70USD, we still get 90c per share EPS
PE 10 , we get $9
I dont know what kind of PE the market will give this outfit , but lets assume something between 5-10.
the stocks going for $1 currently, yet thats how much theyll earn per share in earnings with a price of 70 USD and 50mill extra shares. Even if you double the share capital and use a long term avg price of 70USD, our EPS will be :
122/170 =72cents per share
Whats the price doing at $1 only??
Goldsnapper was right in saying "if they get an infrastructure deal done with BHP, the share price will go to $7-$10"
I looked at this comment with doubt, but then I ran the figures.
My assumptions for pricing and future dilution of adding more shares could be conservative.
they did say long term theyre targetting 5 - 10mill annual production
So with 10mill production, and you can even triple the share capital, youll still get an EPS figure that is just completely out of this world.
im buying more for long term. dont care what happens
theres too few shares atm on register, which makes this company unbelievable!
YML Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held