hi @contraindicatorMy sense is that by itself, if Toliara was...

hi @contraindicator

My sense is that by itself, if Toliara was approved tomorrow it would not alter the course the current proposal. Both BSE and UUUU would proceed as currently prescribed. My sense is that the major shareholders and directors are looking forward to what the new group looks like. I also think the Toliara approval is closer than being portrayed. UUUU looks to be filling in the blanks for USA's rare earths and uranimum processing ambition in which case the USA government will probably be more persuasive influencing all and sundry including Rajoelina. They're certainly more motivated and the language in the deed documentation suggests IMO that in the minds of UUUU the approval is done and so not a condition precedent.

Personally, I'll be really annoyed because, like @LongTony, I was looking for a long life lucrative HMS project in my portfolio, not shrouded by the noise that comes with UUUU. TBH, if it weren't for the apparent need for (and inherent value of ) USA political leverage, I'd be a terribly dissident participant. IMO opinion, without the backing of USA government, UUUU add no transaction execution value to the Toliara project. In this transaction, I think the tail is wagging the dog

However, it certainly might draw the attention of another bidder. And setting aside Tim Carsten's career ambitions, the token exit clause would hardly slow down shareholders re-alignment. I think an approved Toliara Project (NPV₁₀ USD2bn) at FEED is worth a lot more than the the implicit A$225~A$250m offered...

Time will tell I suppose

Have a great day