I'm not excited Koro. There's a trading event here you can either use or ignore. There's plenty of other stocks out there. But this one has bluesky written all over it. I don't care if they make zero profit. When Bird flu started to get media attention in 2005 I was already set from 30c or so. It was a lay down misere that Biota would fly on the back of a hype bubble. At the end of the day the hype gets traded first and then it is either real and profitable or just hype. You either strike gas or its a duster but the hype is still tradable. If it strikes gas you may be lucky to still be IN.
So currently, there is no swine flu vaccine. There is no bird flu vaccine. Schools are closing on swine flu beaurocratic hype. It doesnt look like its much more lethal than "regular" flu from what I can see.
The swine flu pandemic still has 2 months before it peaks (based on that compute sim I posted a few times and no one bothered to look at). LANI Phase 3 will complete mid year http://www.biota.com.au/uploaded/154/1021497_37daiichisankyotomarketcs.pdf
Biota and Daiichi Sankyo will share commercial returns from CS-8958 licensing outside Japan.
Tamiflu resistance appears to be close to 100%.
If CS-8958 doesn't work that leaves Relenza as the only compound that does work. If it does work safely it will become the standard because a once weekly dose guarantees compliance.
It doesn't matter if this is not profitable. The music will be so loud and the audience so wide Biota will be pushed into the stratosphere by the media droning on and on about schools closing and pandemic risks. And that's before swine is enedmic in Indonesia and other high risk H5N1 areas.
BTA Price at posting:
$1.24 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
