In news just out.....the US Center for Disease Control and...

In news just out.....the US Center for Disease Control and Preventation has recommended all people over 6 months, should receive the H1N1 injecton.

This is a significant develpment and according to this link....may cause potential for vaccine shortages.

Remember it was the vaccine oversupply story ,which really hurt this whole influenza drug supply sector. This is a market moving development for GSK and some of the other big pharma vaccne and anti-viral producers.

http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/717579

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In other breaking news....WHO said today that the pandemic may not have peaked.....and have retained all their elevated alerts.

NOTE: the modest effectiveness of the current vaccine at circ 70% acording to WHO...at bottom of story.

CDC and WHO views are the basis for much of the world governments pandaic planning....their is no evidence to suggest GSK will, or have received any cancellation of the ramped up 190 m doses PA. Such production levels would see BTA receive royalties of $240m in the next 12 months...(and probably a share price on that basis alone of $5.00)
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http://www.webmd.boots.com/cold-and-flu/news/20100224/swine-flu-at-less-severe-end-of-pandemic-spectrum-who


24th February 2010 The World Health Organisation (WHO) says its too early to say that the current H1N1 pandemic has peaked.

The WHOs emergency committee is to reconvene in the next few weeks to reassess the situation.

Announcing the decision at a press conference in Geneva, Switzerland, the WHOs Special Adviser on Pandemic Influenza, Dr Keiji Fukuda, said the committee had decided it was too early to conclude that the pandemic was in a post-peak period in many countries.

Worldwide differences
During Tuesdays discussions, which lasted for two hours, flu experts noted that pandemic activity was at different stages in different parts of the world. Although Swine Flu infections are falling in North America and Western Europe, Dr Fukuda said we have also noted that there has been some ongoing activity in other parts of the world, such as Eastern Europe [and] parts of Central Asia.

It was also noted that new outbreaks of Swine Flu were appearing in parts of western Africa.

The Emergency Committee, made up of 15 flu experts, also expressed concern about the effects of pandemic Swine Flu in the southern hemisphere during its approaching winter. We have some reason to be concerned about what might happen as half of the world goes into its winter months, said Dr Fukuda.

The flu experts also noted that some countries had seen two waves of infection.

Less severe: Top flu expert
The WHO confirmed that the number of deaths directly attributable worldwide to H1N1 pandemic flu stood at 16,226. However, Dr Fukuda told the press conference that "This pandemic appears to be on the less severe side of the spectrum of pandemics that we have seen in the 20th century.

An estimated 300 million people have so far been vaccinated against swine flu. The safety record of the vaccine has been excellent, declared Dr Fakuda.

WHO flu experts say its now emerging that the effectiveness of the vaccine in protecting against the infection is between 70% and 75%.

No firm date was given for when the Emergency Committee would reconvene to review the situation.

View Article Sources
SOURCES:
Dr Keiji Fukuda, WHOs Special Adviser on Pandemic Influenza, press conference, Geneva, Switzerland, 24th February 2010.

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