If we wind the clock back to the weekend, I fully expected VPG to hit the 2s given the media coverage and associated fear. Thus, pleasantly surprised that it held to 3.8 at the start of week.
Now given the carnage in the market, and particularly GPT and WDC falls, also surprised it is holding at 3.5.
I certainly wouldn't be surprised if we see it in the 2s, but that will just represent massive buying opportunity IMO.
If Scarborough & board end up uncomfortable with a debt equity swap because price is too low resulting in massive dilution, then there are choices IMO:
- selectively sell property: I think this is viable as VPG properties are generally smaller in value and thus open to a larger number of investors...they don't appear to be pushing this as hard as they could
- full payment is deferred with interest, perhaps along with an option to buy up to 19.9% at say 20 cents any time over next 12 months
- sell the funds management business
All are difficult options, but they have time IMO, although not a lot of time.
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