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Vale news overnight, page-2

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    This is the tweet from the president of Brazil this morning regarding Vale. (Translation below)

    It’s significant as it means Vale will need to revisit this issue urgently. It may mean further significant capital to be set aside to allow for the remediation of damages and compensation to families. Also they are in the cross hairs of the current president, which may result in significant delays and expansions of other mines (especially in Para state) being knocked back.

    (As per previous post), The CEO succession proposed by the govt would also indicate that the govt has pulling power in how Vale is operated. If the succession were to eventuate as per the govt’s wishes, it could ensure a higher proportion of capital being allocated to remediation of damages, compensation, environmental remediation of works and other public investment requirements. Things such as higher royalty payments may also occur.

    How does help FMG? Well this would increase the break even point even further. Its break even has skyrocketed in recent times to about USD 60.

    It would also likely mean that the likelihood of Vale ever getting back to its production output of just under 400mt in 2018 will not happen for many many years.

    also more IO could be allocated to steel mills in Brazil at adequate pricing to ensure they are competitive and are able to produce enough steel for domestic consumption purposes. This may mean less seaborne IO to China, which may place upward pressure on prices.

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