despite not knowing the precise financial details of the deal and geological similarities to SDL's deposit, there is still room to extrapolate some rough back of the envelope numbers and speculate, based on a similar transaction being done, on the implications this COULD have for SDL.
let's say China Iron Pty Ltd offers $2.5 billion for 51% of SDL's Cameroon holding company - that values the total business at approx $5 billion.
SDL (with a current market cap of $440 million) share of the project would be instantly also valued at $2.5 billion (after they keep half and sell half).
a $2.5 bill mc. translates to a share price of 5 to 6X the current price (based on market cap ratios).
better still, it leaves SDL with only $800 million to borrow (assumming capex of $3.3 billion as estimated by SDL).
END RESULT: shares instantly worth roughly 80c to $1 and SDL shareholders don't have to stump up any extra cash to get the mines into production. SDL then pays cash dividends within 1 to 2 years of production (assumming they use operating cashflow to pay off of the $800miill in that period).
so the question is this, can anyone see the potential for one of the majors to come along and 'do a Vale'? if yes, then the shares are currently spectacularly undervalued!
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