I am sick of people posting as if commercial success is just...

I am sick of people posting as if commercial success is just about a certainty.

To quote from ARQ's June quarterly report.

"The first well, Valentine 1 is being drilled in EP 104 with ARC as operator with a working interest of 38.95%. Valentine 1 is a 3,345 metre test of the Devonian aged Virgin Hills Formation. The reservoir is interpreted to be a fan / deltaic sand body which has a very distinctive seismic signature. The prospect is a stratigraphic trap and therefore relatively high risk, but the distinctive seismic signature and the prognosed good source rocks of the Gogo Formation shales, together with the high potential hydrocarbon volumes, make it an attractive target."

NOTE: While it is an "attractive target" it is also "relatively high risk"

In other words, most likely it will not be commercial.