Hi everyone. The below analysis may be of interest to all especially those shareholders who are "long LNG".
The source data is the various substantial holdings & issued capital releases over the past year or so. This is public info.
The summary is Valinor appear to have an average of approx
$1.65 a share.
They have 46.9m shares which is $77.3m of their capital at risk (so not the current LNG share price but their capital).
This low average has been made possible by approximately 50% of their holdings being acquired at under 80c a share. What has also helped is they have made some strong sales then bought again in the dips. Nice work.
I do not believe they participated in the recent $178m capital raising as I can not see the change in shares.
The summary of
Baupost is they have an average of
$2.47 per share
They have
52.8m shares which is
$113m of their capital at risk (so not the current LNG share price but their capital).
Interestingly the way they seem to trade is come on line and but material parcels in a short period of time (generally three day intense period).
I do not believe they have been selling into the spikes just consistently building their positions.
I do not believe they participated in the recent $178m capital raising as I can not see the change in shares.
Hope this stirs the mental juices!
cheers
Detailed data below.
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
| 1 |
BAUPOST |
|
|
|
| 2 |
Shares |
Purchase price per share ($) |
Investment ($) |
|
| 3 |
5,750,000 |
0.55 |
3,162,500 |
|
| 4 |
1,000,000 |
0.80 |
800,000 |
|
| 5 |
2,937,769 |
0.97 |
2,849,636 |
|
| 6 |
850,000 |
1.32 |
1,122,000 |
|
| 7 |
3,000,000 |
1.32 |
3,960,000 |
|
| 8 |
2,000,000 |
1.41 |
2,820,000 |
|
| 9 |
500,000 |
1.40 |
700,000 |
|
| 10 |
2,462,231 |
1.53 |
3,767,213 |
|
| 11 |
800,000 |
1.62 |
1,296,000 |
|
| 12 |
3,750,000 |
1.24 |
4,650,000 |
|
| 13 |
2,850,000 |
1.32 |
3,762,000 |
|
| 14 |
Total as of 12 June 2014 - initial substantial holding notice |
25,900,000 |
0.90 |
28,889,349 |
| 15 |
Issued shares- 18 June 2014 |
8,400,000 |
0.55 |
53,816,199 |
| 16 |
On Market purchases 16 June 2014 |
172,452 |
1.69 |
291,444 |
| 17 |
Total as of 2 July 2014 |
34,472,452 |
2.41 |
82,996,992 |
| 18 |
On Market purchases 3 July 2014 |
4,000,000 |
2.3 |
9,200,000 |
| 19 |
On Market purchases 30 July 2014 |
2,212,454 |
2.6 |
5,752,380 |
| 20 |
Total as of 31 July 2014 |
40,684,906 |
2.41 |
97,949,372 |
| 21 |
On Market purchases 5 Aug 2014 |
1,200,000 |
3.46 |
4,152,000 |
| 22 |
On Market purchases 6 Aug 2014 |
500,000 |
3.33 |
1,665,000 |
| 23 |
On Market purchases 7 Aug 2014 |
300,000 |
3.45 |
1,035,000 |
| 24 |
On Market purchases 9 Oct 2014 |
570,000 |
2.46 |
1,402,200 |
| 25 |
On Market purchases 9 Oct 2014 |
2,000,000 |
2.83 |
5,660,000 |
| 26 |
On Market purchases 10 Oct 2014 |
1,275,000 |
2.77 |
3,531,750 |
| 27 |
Total as of mid Oct 2014 |
46,529,906 |
2.48 |
115,395,322 |
| 28 |
On Market purchases 14 Oct 2014 |
533,831 |
2.89 |
1,542,772 |
| 29 |
On Market purchases 15 Oct 2014 |
417,268 |
2.88 |
1,201,732 |
| 30 |
On Market purchases 15 Oct 2014 |
31,169 |
2.82 |
87,897 |
| 31 |
On Market purchases 16 Oct 2014 |
318,638 |
2.85 |
908,118 |
| 32 |
On Market purchases 17 Oct 2014 |
548,456 |
3.0 |
1,645,368 |
| 33 |
On Market purchases 21 Oct 2014 |
40,795 |
2.99 |
121,977 |
| 34 |
On Market purchases 23 Oct 2014 |
7,627 |
3.0 |
22,881 |
| 35 |
On Market purchases 24 Oct 2014 |
9,515 |
3.0 |
28,545 |
| 36 |
On Market purchases 28 Oct 2014 |
1,200 |
2.99 |
3,588 |
| 37 |
On Market purchases 02 dec 2014 |
45,474 |
2.49 |
113,230 |
| 38 |
On Market purchases 9 dec 2014 |
104,344 |
2.49 |
259,817 |
| 39 |
On Market purchases 10 dec 2014 |
550,000 |
2.49 |
1,369,500 |
| 40 |
On Market purchases 11 dec 2014 |
1,185,176 |
2.24 |
2,654,794 |
| 41 |
On Market purchases 11 dec 2014 |
836,648 |
1.96 |
1,639,830 |
| 42 |
On Market purchases 8 Jan 2015 |
121,439 |
2.0 |
242,878 |
| 43 |
On Market purchases 8 Jan 2015 |
1,500,000 |
2.0 |
3,000,000 |
| 44 |
Total 12 Jan 2015 |
52,781,486 |
2.47 |
130,238,249 |
| 45 |
Did not participate in Bearhead early capital works ($178m) at $4.35 as share holdings did not change |
|
|
|
| 46 |
LNG shares issued |
503,100,000 |
|
|
| 47 |
Baupost holdings as per substantial holding notices |
52,781,486 |
|
|
| 48 |
Average share price ($) |
2.47 |
|
|
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
| 1 |
Valinor |
|
|
|
| 2 |
Shares |
Purchase price per share ($) |
Investment |
|
| 3 |
6,500,000 |
0.55 |
3,575,000 |
|
| 4 |
157,309 |
0.94 |
147,949 |
|
| 5 |
219,905 |
0.91 |
199,278 |
|
| 6 |
130,859 |
0.92 |
120,600 |
|
| 7 |
420,055 |
0.96 |
404,097 |
|
| 8 |
1,709,884 |
1.07 |
1,832,312 |
|
| 9 |
1,362,481 |
1.21 |
1,644,378 |
|
| 10 |
1,414,070 |
1.31 |
1,857,240 |
|
| 11 |
307,840 |
1.34 |
414,014 |
|
| 12 |
2,665,000 |
1.53 |
4,065,458 |
|
| 13 |
2,015,080 |
1.58 |
3,176,774 |
|
| 14 |
2,120,207 |
1.22 |
2,594,709 |
|
| 15 |
309,793 |
1.31 |
405,643 |
|
| 16 |
3,356,277 |
2.17 |
7,275,737 |
|
| 17 |
1,290,369 |
2.26 |
2,915,976 |
|
| 18 |
Total as of June 18 2014 |
23,979,129 |
0.78 |
30,629,164 |
| 19 |
On Market purchases |
7,633,790.00 |
1.52 |
11,571,784.00 |
| 20 |
Total as of 23 June 2014 |
31,612,919 |
1.334927 |
42,200,948 |
| 21 |
On Market purchases 24/6 to 2/12 |
12,949,519 |
3.03 |
39,237,043 |
| 22 |
On Market disposal 15/8-22/9 |
- 6,087,564 |
4.13 |
- 25,141,639 |
| 23 |
Total as of 4 december 2014 |
38,474,874 |
1.46 |
56,296,351 |
| 24 |
On Market purchases 24/12 to 20 Feb |
5,245,469 |
2.78 |
14,586,643 |
| 25 |
Total as of 20 Feb 2015 |
43,720,343 |
1.62 |
70,882,994 |
| 26 |
|
|
|
|
| 27 |
|
|
|
|
| 28 |
On Market disposal 21/2 to 28/5 |
- 3,688,588 |
4.64 |
- 17,096,764 |
| 29 |
Total as of 01 June 2015 |
40,031,755 |
1.34 |
53,786,230 |
| 30 |
On Market purchases 4/6 to 10/8 |
6,870,770 |
3.42 |
23,492,843 |
| 31 |
46,902,525 |
1.65 |
77,279,073 |
|
| 32 |
LNG shares issued |
503,100,000 |
|
|
| 33 |
Valinor holdings as per substantial holding notices |
46,902,525 |
|
|
| 34 |
Average share price ($) |
1.65 |
|
|
