Full marks for this attempt to apply a fundamental analysis to...

Full marks for this attempt to apply a fundamental analysis to CGC and disappointing there wasn't more feedback (but not a lot of fundamentalists on HC from long experience.....)

As a chartist I'm more interested in what the big money is doing since share prices are forward looking and (again in my experience) rarely seem to be directly related to the current performance of the company).

Perhaps more than most CGC is directly affected by a/ the weather, b/ COVID related issues such as getting staff c/crop specific issues and d/ insiders knowledge of new acquisitions which in hindsight was abundantly clear for a month prior to the most recent capital raising - have a look at the share price performance.

IMO the company is a buy at this price with what appears to be a support line appearing to be being honored around $3.20 representing a slight discount to the recent capital raising. Trading the options gave the opportunity to purchase the shares on market at an effective 10c discount to the implied $3.30 value - buying at $0.20c and allowing them to expire for which CGC paid $0.30 (plus trading profit along the way as the options were quite volatile).

Thus the market is ascribing a current value of around $3.20 and washing out any weak holders ahead of any formal market updates.

My personal view is that CGC is a world class stock with superb assets and distribution. Debt and management issues appear to be under control and the company has a commanding position in the market segments it focuses on. At this price its a relatively attractive buy and hold - not for daytraders at the moment. Those who held or bought around the $4.50 mark are probably washed out or have diluted down with the cap raising.

DYOR