There appears to be a range of conflicts with the valuation of this salt lake.
The Chairman/CEO said at the AGM that the mine will generate earnings of 1cps 05, 6cps 06 and 20cps 07. The independant report puts a NPV valuation of US$53m or A$71m at 15% discount rate (before the erroneous 8x multiple is applied to the NPV - unless I'm missing something) divide the A$71m by 450m shares on issue and valuation looks more like 16cps to me. And given the early stage of development you wouldn't expect the market to pay that much at this stage.
If it was earning 20cps, NPV would likely be around A$520m for 15 year life at 15% discount rate.
Also, in the summary report a WACC of 12% is used because it is the average of Australian resource companies - this may be incorrect. Political risk would be one thing that comes to mind and the operators aren't exactly BHP or RIO. Lets not lose sight here....we are talking about a salt lake in Argentina!
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- valuation 16cps at best?
valuation 16cps at best?
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