valuation after resource

hi all

I've been doing a fair bit of research over the weekend and reading back on old presentations and broker reports back from 2011 etc. There is so much info out there and old BRU presentations and reports.

Turns out we actually used ERCE back then also. I wasn't aware of that as it was before my time.

Anyway I stumbled across a very interesting report by state one stock broker dated 13 Dec 2019. Even though the material is old it is very interesting and gives some indication as to how we may be valued after the contingent and prospective resources are announced next week.

They use a discounted cash flow to derive an NPV for Ungani which is pretty standard practice for operating assets, and then they apply a value per GJ for the 2C Contingent and Prospective resources, which we will have next week.

I'd be very interested to hear if anyone has any updated values that they've seen since this report in terms of $/GJ?

CEO and others, we've been throwing around a $1billion per TCF figure around lately based on some current market caps and recent M&A but this report uses the following:

2C Contingent is $0.04 / GJ
Perspective resource is $0.025 / GJ

If we have 1TCF that would equate to circa $40MM or about 7c per share. Surely this is too low?

Anyone else have any updated rates?

They also go on to compare other players with 2P&2C trading at circa $0.80/GJ which large cap at $1.09/GJ and smaller players at $0.62/GJ. Developers are at $0.05 - $0.25.

If we applied $0.25 that would be circa $250MM per TCF
If we applied $0.80 that would be $800M per TCF

So you can see it makes a huge difference on what rate you apply.

Keen to hear others thoughts?

Cheers all